Stat of the Day, 4th February 2017
Friday’s Result :
3.20 Catterick : Actinpieces @ 4/1 BOG WON at 5/1 Held up in touch in last pair, steady headway tracking leaders 4 out, 3rd next, ridden and went 2nd last, stayed on to lead final 110 yards to win by 3.25 lengths.
Saturday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG
Why?
This 4yr old gelding has won three of his last four, over over this 5f trip on the A/W and was 5th last time out 30 days ago, when probably needing the run after 15 weeks off the track.
To date, he’s 3/5 on standard, 3/5 @ 5f, 3/5 going left handed, 3/4 in a hood and 3/3 within 30 days of his last run, so he’s certainly got optimum conditions here.
The Andrew Balding / David Probert / Lingfield AW handicap angle is a good one, as since 2009 with runners priced at 14/1 or shorter, they are 12/60 (20% SR) for 14.2pts (+23.6% ROI) profit, including…
- 3-5 yr olds : 12/53 (22.6%) for 21.2pts (+40%)
- 6-30 days since last run : 8/39 (20.5%) for 12.2pts (+31.3%)
- and at Class 4 : 4/13 (30.8%) for 22.9pts (+175.8%)
In addition to the above, there’s another angle suggesting a good run today, as since 2008, Andrew Balding / Class 4&5 handicappers / only 1 previous run in the past 90 days = 52/290 (17.9% SR) for 118.7pts (+40.9% ROI), with the following of interest/relevance…
- 6-30 dslr : 42/206 (20.4%) for 140.7pts (+68.3%)
- on the A/W : 21/109 (19.3%) for 31.5pts (+28.9%)
- 4 yr olds are 16/70 (22.9%) for 46.1pts (+65.8%)
- at Lingfield : 10/39 (25.6%) for 24.1pts (+61.9%)
- and over the minimum 5f trip : 3/10 (30%) for 2.23pts (+22.3%)
…so for Saturday…a 1pt win bet on Verne Castle @ 9/2 BOG which was pretty widely available at 7.00pm on Friday To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
…click here for the betting on the 2.30 Lingfield
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
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