Stat of the Day, 8th February 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

3.40 Newcastle : Eastern Dragon @ 9/4 BOG 5th at 3/1 Dwelt, held up towards rear, headway over 1f out, stayed on, never on terms.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

4.30 Carlisle

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Alfie Spinner @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Firstly, don’t let his age (he’s 12!) put you off as he comes here in prime form seeking a hat-trick, having won both his races since switching to Kerry Lee’s yard. Wins over 3m on heavy and then over 3m3f on soft suggest that conditions here should be ideal for a horse who has won 5 of 13 on soft/heavy ground to date.

His new handler Kerry Lee has got her horses (particularly the chasers) running really well at present and her record in all contests since the start of 2016 is an impressive one at 32 from 166 (19.35 SR) for 95.8pts (+57.7% ROI), of which handicappers are 27/119 (22.7%) for 86.4pts (+72.6%)

I’m then naturally interested in how those 119 handicappers fare under similar conditions to today and I found the following being interesting and useful in my research…

  • males are 24/104 (23.1%) for 87pts (+83.6%)
  • those last seen 11-90 days back are 24/93 (25.8%) for 88.3pts (+95%)
  • chasers are 21/86 (24.4%) for 80.3pts (+93.4%)
  • on soft/heavy : 18/70 (25.7%) for 83.5pts (+119.3%)
  • ridden by Jamie Moore : 15/67 (22.4%) for 54.8pts (+81.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 9/46 (19.6%) for 25.9pts (+56.3%)
  • over trips of 3m to 3m6f : 10/36 (27.8%) for 57.6pts (+160.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 10/28 (35.7%) for 41.3pts (+147.4%)
  • 11-13 yr olds are 7/27 (25.9%) for 39.4pts (+146%)
  • and LTO winners are 8 from 24 (33.3%) for 25.9pts (+107.9%)

And if that’s not enough to convince you, I’ll chuck in the fact that the progeny of Alflora are 21 from 99 (21.2% SR) for 150.2pts (+151.7% ROI) profit  in Class 1 to 4 handicap chases over 2n7f and beyond on ground ranging from Good through to Soft since the start of 2015.

…leaving us with…a 1pt win bet on Alfie Spinner @ 4/1 BOG which was available with Bet365, Betfair, SkyBet and BetVictor at 6.05pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.30 Carlisle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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