Wednesday’s Result :
4.30 Carlisle : Alfie Spinner @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Handy until before 2nd, mid-division, headway approaching 11th, stayed on one pace from 4 out.
Thursday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Babouska @ 7/2 BOG
This 3 yr old filly has finished 114 in her last three starts, having won on her first attempt at 9.5f two starts ago, before drop back to 1m saw her defeated LTO 13 days ago. She now comes back up in trip by a couple of furlongs and a similar run to that effort over 9.5f should be enough again today. She’s already 2/4 at this grade and also 2/4 under today’s jockey Nathan Evans.
Trained by Mick Easterby, who is 13/40 (32.5% SR) for 27.6pts (+69% ROI) in handicaps here at Chelmsford since the start of 2016, including…
- those ridden by Nathan Evans = 8/30 (26.7%) for 15.2pts (+50.6%)
- top 4 LTO = 11/29 (37.9%) for 31.4pts (+108.4%)
- 1-20 days since last run = 10/27 (37%) for 24.7pts (+91.3%)
AND…those ridden by Nathan Evans, 1-20 days after a top 4 finish LTO are 7/19 (36.8% SR) for 21.1pts (+110.8%), with those priced in the 5/2 to 6/1 range winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 27.1pts (+208.2%).
Also, since the start of 2015, the Easterby A/W runners stepping up in trip by 0.5f to 2.5f are 16/90 (17.8% SR) for 37.6pts (+41.7% ROI), from which…
- handicappers are 16/76 (21.1%) for 51.6pts (+67.8%)
- ridden by Nathan Evans : 8/40 (20%) for 34.2pts (+85.4%)
- at Class 6 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 44.87pts (+131.8%)
- 3rd or 4th LTO : 7/18 (38.9%) for 40.2pts (+223.3%)
- females are 3/18 (16.7%) for 26.1pts (+144.7%)
- and here at Chelmsford : 3/13 (23.1%) for 3.05pts (+23.5%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Babouska @ 7/2 BOG which was available with Betfair and Paddy Power at 6.15pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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