Stat of the Day, 10th February 2017

Thursday’s Result :

6.25 Chelmsford : Babouska @ 7/2 BOG non-runner

Friday’s pick goes in the…

3.10 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG

Why?

I’m expecting Vyta Du Roc to bounce back to form now he’s dropped in class, especially with the Nicky Henderson stable in such great recent form, having saddled up an astonishing 12 winners from 26 (46.2% SR) in the last 14 days alone!

When chasing Thistlecrack home at Aintree in 2015 Grand National Meeting, he was rated at 150 over hurdles and then went on to beat a couple of decent 150+ chasers La Mercurey & Minella Rocca) at Ascot last year. He’s been a touch disppointing of late and now finds himself almost a stone lighter in the ratings at 139.

He’s not been at his best recently, but he has been running at a higher grade in larger fields than he’s happier with. A quick look at his record shows he’s actually 6 from 11 in fields of less than 14 runners and he’s also 6 from 11 when priced below 6/1.

On top of those stats, he 3/5 on soft ground (which at least some of the track will be!), 2 from 6 under Daryl Jacob, 2 from 2 going right handed and won his only previous Class 3 outing.

So, we have a yard in form running a horse who looks well suited by conditions, the final piece of the jigsaw is to see how the yard fares at the venue in general and since the start of 2012, Nicky Henderson’s runners here at Kempton are 73/249 (29.3% SR) for 102.5pts (+41.2% ROI) and these excellent figures also contain the following of relevance / interest to me today…

  • those with no more than 15 previous runs  : 67/204 (32.8%) for 118.2pts (+57.9%)
  • 5-8 yr olds are 60/194 (30.9%) for 106.2pts (+54.7%)
  • those last seen 11-45 days back are 33/110 (30%) for 82.7pts (+75.2%)
  • handicappers are 19/85 (22.4%) for 65.9pts (+77.5%)
  • chasers are 22/69 (31.9%) for 12.9pts (+18.7%)
  • on soft ground  :18/67 (26.9%) for 13.5pts (+20.2%)
  • on Good to Soft : 16/56 (28.6%) for 34.5pts (+61.5%)
  • and at Class 3 : 15/50 (30%) for 21.6pts (+43.2%)

…which suggested to me…a 1pt win bet on Vyta du Roc @ 5/2 BOG which was available with 10Bet, 188Bet, NetBet and Ladbrokes at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.10 Kempton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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