Monday’s Result :
2.50 Wolverhampton : Haraka @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 9/4 Tracked leaders, carried wide over 2f out, every chance over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong.
Tuesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Casual Cavalier @ 3/1 BOG
We’ve got a 9 yr old gelding with a 3 from 6 record over fences (1311 in his last four outings) and under today’s conditions, his chase record looks very good…
- 3/6 plus a place under Brian Hughes, 3/5 at trips of 1m7.5f to 2m1f, 2/5 plus a place at Class 4
- 3 wins and a place from 4 since moving to George Bewley’s yard, 2/4 plus a place on soft ground
- 2/3 in fields of 1-7 runners, 2/3 in cheekpieces, 2/2 16-30 days after his last run
- 2 from 2 this year so far and he’s 1/1 here at Ayr
On top of all that, trainer George Bewley is 22 from 111 (19.8% SR) for 40.5pts (+36.5% ROI) in handicap chases since 2009, including…
- males : 22/105 (21%) for 46.5pts (+44.3%)
- at Class 4 : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.4pts (+32.9%)
- at 6-25 dslr : 14/57 (24.6%) for 40.2pts (+70.6%)
- at trips shorter than 2m5f : 12/43 (27.9%) for 46.3pts (+107.7%)
- 9 yr olds are 7/27 (25.9%) for 23.4pts (+86.6%)
- on Soft ground : 6/27 (22.2%) for 12.9pts (+47.9%)
- LTO winners are 6/20 (30%) for 4.08pts (+20.4%)
- and those ridden by Brian Hughes are 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+18.6%)
AND…in addition to the above…Since 2012 in handicap chases, males aged 7 to 9 yrs old rated 95 to 125 and priced at 10/1 and shorter, 4 to 25 days after winning a novice chase last time out are 56/201 (27.9% SR)for 77.6pts (+38.6% ROI), from which…
- on soft ground : 16/56 (28.6%) for 19.1pts (+34.2%)
- over trips of 2m-2m1f : 15/40 (37.5%) for 16.8pts (+42%)
- and on soft ground over trips of 2m-2m1f : 5/10 (50%) for 9.29pts (+92.9%)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier @ 3/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 and SkyBet at 6.10pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS