Stat of the Day, 15th February 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

3.50 Ayr : Casual Cavalier @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 11/8 Tracked leader, led 2nd to 5th, with leader, regained narrow lead after 3 out, ridden after next, soon hard pressed, headed flat, no extra closing stages.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

7.20 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Peaceful Passage @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Well, we’ve got a 3yr old John Gosden filly returning from a break of 72 days to be ridden by Nicky Mackay in a Class 5, 1m4f maiden and this interests me because…

…Mackay / Gosden / Kempton / odds below 9-2 = 15/37 (40.5% SR) for 12.95pts (+35% ROI), from which…

  • in maidens : 10/26 (38.5%) for 6.1pts (+23.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 9/23 (39.1%) for 6.9pts (+30%)
  • at Class 5 : 10/22 (45.5%) for 10.68pts (+48.5%)
  • over 1m4f : 2/5 (40%) for 2.62pts (+52.4%)

AND…3 yr olds in Class 5 maidens are 5/13 (38.5% SR) for a modest 1pt profit (+7.5%ROI), but an excellent strike rate.

The second strand is the success of the Gosden runners returning from a break, as since the start of 2015, those coming back from an absence of 46 to 180 days are 58/191 (30.4% SR) for 97.2pts (+50.9% ROI), including of note today…

  • in non-hcps : 46/144 (31.9%) for 89.3pts (+62%)
  • 3 yr olds are 40/131 (30.5%) for 72.2pts (+55.1%)
  • in maidens : 27/79 (34.2%) for 17.1pts (+21.7%)
  • female runners are 28/78 (35.9%) for 92.2pts (+118.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 20/59 (33.9%) for 14.5pts (+24.6%)
  • here at Kempton : 6/11 (54.6%) for 22.7pts (+206.1%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Peaceful Passage @ 3/1 BOG which was available with Bet365 and around half a dozen others at 6.00pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.20 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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