Stat of the Day, 16th February 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

7.20 Kempton : Peaceful Passage @ 3/1 BOG WON at 11/8 Never far away in 5th, smooth headway into 2nd over 2f out, switched right 2f out, pushed into lead over 1f out, clear when edged left inside final furlong, ran on well to win by 3.25 lengths

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

1.55 Kelso :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Spanish Fleet @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A pretty simple one this time with a 9 yr old gelding in good form, knocking on the door with three successive runner-up finishes. Ran here at Kelso over 1f shorter LTO 32 days ago on heavy ground at a higher grade and was staying on well, so I’m confident the extra furlong allied to a drop in class will finally get him back over the line.

He’s trained by George Bewley, whose chasers are 17/89 (19.1% SR) for 20.2pts (+22.7% ROI) since the start of 2014, with all 17 winners coming from 84 (20.2% SR) handicap contests for profits of 25.2pts at an ROI of 30%.

And, of those 84 handicappers…

  • males are 17/78 (21.8%) for 31.2pts (+40%)
  • those who ran in the last 90 days are 15/71 (21.1%) for 27.4pts (+38.6%)
  • those priced at 8/1 and shorter are 15/57 (26.3%) for 26.5pts (+46.5%)
  • on soft/heavy ground : 5/25 (20%) for 7.17pts (+28.7%)
  • those dropping down a grade are 6/20 (30%) for 21.5pts (+107.5%)
  • those ridden by Brian Hughes are 4/14 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+18.6%)
  • and those up in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs are 5/9 (55/6%) for 22.4pts (+248.7%)

AND…males priced at 8/1 and shorter within 90 days of their last run are 13/46 (28.3% SR) for 26.7pts (+58% ROI)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Spanish Fleet @ 10/3 BOG which was widely available at 5.55pm on Wednesday, whilst those lucky/quick enough to get on with Betbright can/could get 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.55 Kelso

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

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