Stat of the Day, 28th February 2017

Monday’s Result :

4.45 Ayr : Shades of Midnight @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 9/4 Tracked leaders, led before 3 out, headed last, kept on and lost 2nd place close home, beaten by little more than half a length

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

2.00 Lingfield…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Picansort 4/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Peter Crate’s A/W handicappers priced at 14/1 and shorter, backed blindly have 21 wins from 116 (18.1% SR) for level stakes profits of 42.7pts at an ROI of some 36.8%, which is more than decent and in respect of this contest, those runners are…

  • 21/112 (18.75%) for 46.7pts (+41.7%) on Polytrack
  • 15/77 (19.5%) here at Lingfield fpr 37.8pts (+49.1%)
  • 12/74 (16.2%) for 17.6pts (+23.8%) ridden by Shane Kelly
  • 16/65 (24.6%) for 48.8pts (+75.1%) over the 5f minimum trip
  • and 12 from 50 (24%) for 21.9pts (+43.8%) in the February to April period

Peter couldn’t be better represented today than by the 10 yr old gelding, Picansort, a 7 times (yes, seven!) course and distance winner, who not only also has an excellent overall A/W record, but does appear to have his favoured conditions here to boot!

In fact, this horse has 10 wins from 58 (17.2% SR) on the A/W, rewarding followers with profits of 14.5pts at an ROI of 25%, and under today’s conditions, those 58 races have produced the following…

  • 8/50 (16%) for 13.3pts (+26.7%) going left handed
  • 8/48 (16.7%) for 16.6pts (+34.6%) whilst at Peter Crate’s yard
  • 8/47 (17%) for 16.3pts (+34.8%) here at Lingfield
  • 8/41 (19.5%) for 23.6pts (+57.5%) with Shane Kelly in the saddle
  • 9/37 (24.3%) for 31.4pts (+84.9%) in 5f sprints
  • 7/28 (25%) for 31.3pts (+111.7%) over this Lingfield 5f course and distance
  • 8/23 (34.8%) for 14/1pts (+61.1%) when priced at 5/1 and shorter
  • and 6 from 19 (31.6%) for 24.3pts (+127.7%) when wearing blinkers.

And if that’s not quite enough to persuade/tempt you, a glance at our racecard for this race shows that he’s top of the Speed Ratings and if you back our top-rated blindly in 5f races, you make a profit, as explained better/in more detail here in the Gold Forum.

…and that’s why I’ve placed…a 1pt win bet on Picansort @ 4/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.00pm on Monday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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