Stat of the Day, 3rd March 2017

Thursday’s Result :

5.25 Newcastle : Dark Side Dream @ 4/1 BOG u/p at 5/2 report to follow

Friday’s pick goes in the…

3.50 Newbury…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Beggars Cross 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding returned to form at Doncaster LTO, winning over 3 miles 22 days ago to take his 6-race formline to 145441.

Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, whose record with handicap chasers who won LTO within the previous 30 days stands at 36/143 (25.2% SR) for profits of 20pts (+14% ROI) with runners priced at 12/1 and shorter. And from these 143 LTO winners…

  • those racing over 2m2f to 3m1.5f = 31/113 (27.4%) for 30pts (+26.5%)
  • 7 yr olds are 11/42 (26.2%) for 21.5pts (+51.1%)
  • and those racing on Good to Soft ground are 7/26 (26.9%) for 23.1pts (+88.6%)

AND…more generally since the start of 2010 in UK NH handicap chases, runners priced at 11/8 to 11/1 running within 11-25 days of an LTO win that was preceded by a run of 3 or more unplaced efforts are 17/517 (22.6% SR) for 126.1pts (+24.4% ROI), including of relevance today…

  • males are 112/484 (23.1%) for 136.8pts (+28.3%)
  • 6 to 11 yr olds are 114/478 (23.9%) for 153.4pts (+32.1%)
  • those racing over 2m4f to 3m5.5f are 90/366 (24.6%) for 136.1pts (+37.2%)

WHILST6 to 11 yr old males racing over 2m4f to 3m5.5f are 84/318 (26.4% SR) for 157.6pts (+49.6% ROI) and in the interests of showing I’m not relyin on old data to skew the figures, since 2014, these runners are 38/136 (27.9%) for 74.2pts (+54.6%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Beggars Cross 7/2 BOG which was offered by Betway, Coral, Ladbrokes & Hills at 8.35pm on Thursday and to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.50 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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