Stat of the Day, 4th March 2017

Friday’s Result :

3.50 Newbury : Beggars Cross @ 7/2 BOG fell at 7/2 Slightly hampered 1st, chased leaders, pushed along and weakened before 13th, soon behind, tailed off when fell last

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.40 Newbury…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Bloody Mary10/3 BOG

Why?

A 6 yr old French mare who won won 5 Flat races on the bounce in France before winning on her hurdling debut at Auteuil over 2m 2f on very soft ground, before then switching to Nicky Henderson’s yard here in the UK.

She then won on her UK debut in a Class 4, heavy ground contest over today’s trip of 2m 0.5f, beating Banyu by 2.25 lengths and Banyu has since won 2 from 2 at this grade.

Bloody Mary’s only run since that win came at last year’s Cheltenham festival, where she was far from disgraced in finishing 3rd of 16 in the Grade 2 Mares Hurdle, 7 lengths behind Limini, and she now drops down to Class 3 for her handicap debut, suggesting she’s the one to beat, provided a 352-day absence hasn’t made her rusty!

Nicky Henderson’s runners priced at 5/1 and shorter here at Newbury are 36 from 80 (45% SR) for profits of 32.3pts (+40.4% ROI) since the start of 2013 and with this contest firmly in mind, those 80 runners are…

  • 35/73 (48%) for 32.6pts (+44.6%) with less than 15 career runs under their belts
  • 26/55 (47.3%) for 21.4pts (+38.8%) in hurdle contests
  • 25/43 (58.1%) for 27.5pts (+63.9%) over this 2m 0.5f trip
  • 16/37 (43.2%) for 16.7pts (+45.2%) on soft ground
  • 16/30 (53.3%) for 15.4pts (+51.2%) from those finishing 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO
  • 12/26 (46.2%) for 19.6pts (+75.3%) at Class 3
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 6.7pts (+25.8%) from those returning from a break longer than 60 days.

All of which is quite compelling, but then throw in Nicky Henderson’s record with handicap debutants and it starts to get really interesting (to me, anyway!).

Backing Nicky’s handicap debutants blindly since the start of 2011 would have given you 42 winners from 212 (19.8% SR) and a £20 bet on each of them would have netted you a cool £2100 (105pts) at an excellent ROI of 49.5% from “set and forget” betting.

If you wanted to filter those 212 runners down based on today’s conditions, you’d find that…

  • hurdlers are 36/178 (20.2%) for 112.2pts (+63%)
  • horses bred/born outside of the UK are 33/166 (19.9%) for 99.5pts (+59.9%)
  • over trips of 2m/2m 0.5f : 17/67 (25.4%) for 75.4pts (+112.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 13/65 (20%) for 55.3pts (+85.1%)
  • at Class 3 : 15/62 (24.2%) for 27pts (+43.6%)
  • females are 8/37 (21.6%) for 66.6pts (+180.1%)
  • here at Newbury : 7/28 (25%) for 15.4pts (+54.8%)
  • and those ridden by today’s jockey, Nico de Boinville, are 5/16 (31.25%) for 22.5pts (+140.8%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Bloody Mary 10/3 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & Stan James at 9.10pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.40 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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