2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 16th March)

Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!

DAY THREE: Thursday 16th March 2017

13:30 JLT Novices’ Chase   2m 4f

Pluses….

  • 5 of the 6 winners were Irish-trained
  • Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 6 winners
  • 4 of the last 6 winners had won a Graded Chase before
  • All 6 past winners had run at the Festival before
  • 5 of the 6 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the 16 top three finishers won last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
  • 7 year-olds have won 4 of last 6

Negatives….

  • Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
  • The top-rated horse is yet to win
  • Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
  • 2 winning favourites in 6 runnings (1 co)
  • No winner had less than 3 career chase starts
  • No winner had been off for more than 54 days


14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

Pluses….

  • 7 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
  • 10 of the last 16 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • The last 6 winners were rated 138 or higher
  • 9 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 2m7f
  • 8 of the last 10 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
  • 7 of the last 16 winners won their last race
  • 3 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle (Haydock)
  • Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses
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Negatives….

  • Just 2 Irish-trained winner in the last 11 runnings
  • Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
  • 5 year-olds have won just once since 1973
  • Horses rated 142 or higher have a poor record
  • French-bred horses are 0-68
  • 1 winning favourite in last 11 years
  • Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 14
  • Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 1 from 32


14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 17 of the 23 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
  • The last 4 winners were 2nd season chasers
  • 8 of the last 9 had won at Cheltenham previously
  • 8 of the last 9 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
  • The King George VI Chase is a good guide
  • The previous renewal is often a good guide
  • 9 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
  • The last 5 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
  • 8 of the last 9 were rated 161+
  • 4 of the last 12 were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase
  • 9 of last 12 winners were fav or 2nd fav
  • Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
  • Respect first time head-gear (2 from 7)
  • 7 of the last 9 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

  • The Irish are 1 from 37 runners in this race
  • Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
  • Avoid horses aged 11 or older
  • Just one winner rated 160 or below

 

15:30 Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 12 won last time out
  • 15 of the last 16 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 8 of the last 15 were French Bred
  • Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
  • 14 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
  • 11 of the last 12 winners started 17/2 or less in the betting
  • Respect past winners of the race

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (1 from 17)
  • A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
  • Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
  • Avoid front runners
  • The Irish are have won the race just once since 1995
  • Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before (0 from 34 in the last 12 runnings)
  • Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 14)
  • Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 57
  • Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 48)


16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

Pluses….

  • 26 of the last 29 winners were officially rated 141 or less
  • The last 8 winners carried under 11-0
  • Look out for French-breds
  • Venetia Williams, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners should be noted
  • The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 19 runnings
  • 15 of the last 16 winners returned at double-figure odds
  • 20 of the last 25 winners had run at the Festival before

Negatives….

  • Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
  • The Irish have only sent out 2 winners since 1951
  • 1 favourite in the last 11 years
  • 2 of last 22 won with 11st+
  • Novices are 1 from 38 since 2005


16:50 Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

A new race (runs just once before) Willie Mullins won the 2016 race with Limini


17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

Pluses….

  • Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
  • 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
  • The last 5 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
  • 6 of the last 7 winners carried 11st 6lbs+
  • Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
  • Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
  • 16 of the last 17 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
  • Look for non-claiming amateur riders
  • 5 of the last 6 winners wore headgear
  • 7 of the last 8 winners came from the top 6 in the market
  • Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 8 winners

Negatives….

  • Just two Irish winners for 33 years (but have won 2 of the last 3)
  • Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record (0 from 65)
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 18
  • Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
  • French breds are 0 from 47 since 2005
  • Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 67 since 2009
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