2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 16th March)

Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!

DAY THREE: Thursday 16th March 2017

13:30 JLT Novices’ Chase   2m 4f

Pluses….

• 5 of the 6 winners were Irish-trained
• Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 6 winners
• 4 of the last 6 winners had won a Graded Chase before
• All 6 past winners had run at the Festival before
• 5 of the 6 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 10 of the 16 top three finishers won last time out
• 5 of the last 6 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
• 7 year-olds have won 4 of last 6

Negatives….

• Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
• The top-rated horse is yet to win
• Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
• 2 winning favourites in 6 runnings (1 co)
• No winner had less than 3 career chase starts
• No winner had been off for more than 54 days

14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle   3m

Pluses….

• 7 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
• 10 of the last 16 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• The last 6 winners were rated 138 or higher
• 9 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 2m7f
• 8 of the last 10 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
• 7 of the last 16 winners won their last race
• 3 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle (Haydock)
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses

Negatives….

• Just 2 Irish-trained winner in the last 11 runnings
• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• 5 year-olds have won just once since 1973
• Horses rated 142 or higher have a poor record
• French-bred horses are 0-68
• 1 winning favourite in last 11 years
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 14
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 1 from 32

14:50 Ryanair Chase   2m 5f

Pluses….

• 17 of the 23 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
• The last 4 winners were 2^nd season chasers
• 8 of the last 9 had won at Cheltenham previously
• 8 of the last 9 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
• The King George VI Chase is a good guide
• The previous renewal is often a good guide
• 9 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
• The last 5 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
• 8 of the last 9 were rated 161+
• 4 of the last 12 were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase
• 9 of last 12 winners were fav or 2^nd fav
• Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
• Respect first time head-gear (2 from 7)
• 7 of the last 9 winners DIDN’T win last time out

Negatives….

• The Irish are 1 from 37 runners in this race
• Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
• Avoid horses aged 11 or older
• Just one winner rated 160 or below

15:30 Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle 3m

Pluses….

• 10 of the last 12 won last time out
• 15 of the last 16 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
• 8 of the last 15 were French Bred
• Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
• 14 of the last 15 winners finished 1^st or 2^nd in all their hurdling runs that season
• 11 of the last 12 winners started 17/2 or less in the betting
• Respect past winners of the race

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1^st or 2^nd last time out (1 from 17)
• A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
• Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
• Avoid front runners
• The Irish are have won the race just once since 1995
• Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before (0 from 34 in the last 12 runnings)
• Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 14)
• Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 57
• Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 48)

16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate   2m 5f

Pluses….

• 26 of the last 29 winners were officially rated 141 or less
• The last 8 winners carried under 11-0
• Look out for French-breds
• Venetia Williams, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners should be noted
• The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 19 runnings
• 15 of the last 16 winners returned at double-figure odds
• 20 of the last 25 winners had run at the Festival before

Negatives….

• Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
• The Irish have only sent out 2 winners since 1951
• 1 favourite in the last 11 years
• 2 of last 22 won with 11st+
• Novices are 1 from 38 since 2005

16:50 Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f

A new race (runs just once before) Willie Mullins won the 2016 race with Limini

17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase   3m 1½f

Pluses….

• Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
• 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
• The last 5 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
• 6 of the last 7 winners carried 11st 6lbs+
• Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
• Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
• 16 of the last 17 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
• Look for non-claiming amateur riders
• 5 of the last 6 winners wore headgear
• 7 of the last 8 winners came from the top 6 in the market
• Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 8 winners

Negatives….

• Just two Irish winners for 33 years (but have won 2 of the last 3)
• Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record (0 from 65)
• Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 18
• Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
• French breds are 0 from 47 since 2005
• Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 67 since 2009