2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY THREE (Thurs 16th March)
Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!
DAY THREE: Thursday 16th March 2017
13:30 JLT Novices’ Chase 2m 4f
Pluses….
- 5 of the 6 winners were Irish-trained
- Willie Mullins has trained 3 of the last 6 winners
- 4 of the last 6 winners had won a Graded Chase before
- All 6 past winners had run at the Festival before
- 5 of the 6 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 10 of the 16 top three finishers won last time out
- 5 of the last 6 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
- 7 year-olds have won 4 of last 6
Negatives….
- Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
- The top-rated horse is yet to win
- Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
- 2 winning favourites in 6 runnings (1 co)
- No winner had less than 3 career chase starts
- No winner had been off for more than 54 days
14:10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle 3m
Pluses….
- 7 of the last 11 winners were aged 8 or older
- 10 of the last 16 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
- The last 6 winners were rated 138 or higher
- 9 of the last 12 winners had won over at least 2m7f
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
- 7 of the last 16 winners won their last race
- 3 of the last 8 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle (Haydock)
- Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
- Respect JP McManus-owned horses
Negatives….
- Just 2 Irish-trained winner in the last 11 runnings
- Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
- 5 year-olds have won just once since 1973
- Horses rated 142 or higher have a poor record
- French-bred horses are 0-68
- 1 winning favourite in last 11 years
- Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 14
- Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single-figures are just 1 from 32
14:50 Ryanair Chase 2m 5f
Pluses….
- 17 of the 23 winners and runners-up had won at the course before
- The last 4 winners were 2nd season chasers
- 8 of the last 9 had won at Cheltenham previously
- 8 of the last 9 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
- The King George VI Chase is a good guide
- The previous renewal is often a good guide
- 9 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
- The last 5 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
- 8 of the last 9 were rated 161+
- 4 of the last 12 were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase
- 9 of last 12 winners were fav or 2nd fav
- Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
- Respect first time head-gear (2 from 7)
- 7 of the last 9 winners DIDN’T win last time out
Negatives….
- The Irish are 1 from 37 runners in this race
- Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
- Avoid horses aged 11 or older
- Just one winner rated 160 or below
15:30 Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle 3m
Pluses….
- 10 of the last 12 won last time out
- 15 of the last 16 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
- 8 of the last 15 were French Bred
- Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
- 14 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
- 11 of the last 12 winners started 17/2 or less in the betting
- Respect past winners of the race
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out (1 from 17)
- A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
- Willie Mullins is yet to win the race
- Avoid front runners
- The Irish are have won the race just once since 1995
- Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before (0 from 34 in the last 12 runnings)
- Previous Albert Bartlett winners have a poor record (0 from 14)
- Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 57
- Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 48)
16:10 Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate 2m 5f
Pluses….
- 26 of the last 29 winners were officially rated 141 or less
- The last 8 winners carried under 11-0
- Look out for French-breds
- Venetia Williams, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners should be noted
- The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 19 runnings
- 15 of the last 16 winners returned at double-figure odds
- 20 of the last 25 winners had run at the Festival before
Negatives….
- Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
- The Irish have only sent out 2 winners since 1951
- 1 favourite in the last 11 years
- 2 of last 22 won with 11st+
- Novices are 1 from 38 since 2005
16:50 Trull House Stud Mares’ Novices Hurdle 2m1f
A new race (runs just once before) Willie Mullins won the 2016 race with Limini
17:30 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase 3m 1½f
Pluses….
- Respect 8 and 9 year-olds
- 3 of the last 6 winners ran in the BetVictor Handicap Chase (Open Meeting)
- The last 5 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
- 6 of the last 7 winners carried 11st 6lbs+
- Look for McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
- Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
- 16 of the last 17 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
- Look for non-claiming amateur riders
- 5 of the last 6 winners wore headgear
- 7 of the last 8 winners came from the top 6 in the market
- Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 8 winners
Negatives….
- Just two Irish winners for 33 years (but have won 2 of the last 3)
- Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record (0 from 65)
- Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 18
- Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
- French breds are 0 from 47 since 2005
- Avoid claiming jockeys – 1 from 67 since 2009
Leave a Reply
Want to join the discussion?Feel free to contribute!