2017 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY TWO (Weds 15th March)
Each day of the 2017 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.
We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival for you!
DAY TWO: Wednesday 15th March 2017
13:30 Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle 2m 5f
Pluses….
- 19 of the last 22 win and place horses came from the top 4 in the betting
- The Irish have won 7 of the last 11
- All of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- In the last 6 runnings Irish-trained horses have filled 12 of the 18 places
- 16 of the last 18 were NH bred
- 12 of the last 19 had won a graded race before
- Look for past Irish point-to-point winners
- Respect Willie Mullins – 4 winners and 6 placed in last 12 years
Negatives….
- Only one winner aged older than 6 has won since 1974
- Avoid 4 year-olds too – just one winner since 1991
- Horses aged 7 or older are 0 from 51 (since 1988)
- Only two of the last 31 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
- The last 16 Challow Hurdle winners have been beaten
- Avoid ex-flat horses (since 2005 all have been beaten, 0 from 27)
14:10 RSA Chase 3m ½f
Pluses….
- 4 of the last 8 winners ran in the Flogas Chase that season
- Respect 7 year-olds – won 8 of the last 9
- Irish bred horses are 17 from 20
- 8 of the last 10 winners had win a Grade 1 or 2 Chase
- 5 of the last 8 winners were trained in Ireland
- Trainers Willie Mullins and Paul Nicholls do well in the race
- 21 of the last 24 were novice hurdling last season
- 5 of the last 7 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
- Look for horses that ran that same calendar year (49 of the last 50 winners had)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at the Festival the previous year
Negatives….
- No winner aged 9 or older since 1992
- Just 4 winners younger than 7 since 1978
- Avoid horses that had fallen before over fences
- Avoid unbeaten horses over fences (2 from 28)
- Avoid horses that had had 2 full seasons over hurdles prior (0 from 76 since 1993)
- Just 1 of the last 17winners had run less than 3 times over fences
- All 20 winners of the Kauto Star (Feltham, Kempton) have lost
14:50 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle 2m 5f
Pluses….
- 9 of the last 12 were 2nd season hurdlers
- 6 of the last 8 winners hailed from the top 8 horses in the weights
- 10 of the last 11 winners hailed form the top 7 in the betting
- 17 of the last 22 winners won earlier that season
- Respect JP McManus-trained runners
- 8 of the last 15 winners were FRENCH-BRED
- 13 of the last 23 won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners
- Look for horses that had raced 4 or less times that season (last 8 winners)
- The last 12 winners had run 32 days or longer ago
- Respect Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson-trained horses (2 wins each since 2010)
Negatives….
- No winning favourite in the last 13 years
- Horses aged 10+ are just 2 from 27 to even place since 1999
- Horses rated 150+ don’t have a great record
- Only 3 of the last 16 winners had raced at the Festival previously
- None of the last 12 winners had run in the last 32 day – look for horses that have had a small break
- Only 3 winners since 2000 had run more than 9 times over hurdles
15:30 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase 2m
Pluses….
- 11 of the last 16 winners ran in the Tingle Creek Chase that season
- 3 of the last 4 winners also won the Clarence House Chase (Ascot) that season
- 21 of the last 32 had won at the festival before
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson have won 6 of the last 9 between them
- 13 of the last 14 winners had run that calendar year
- 34 of the last 35 winners returned 11/1 or shorter
- 6 of the last 10 winners were French-bred
- 10 of the last 14 winners were second season chasers
- 15 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 12 of the last 17 winners ran in the previous season’s Arkle or Champion Chases
Negatives….
- Only one winner priced 11/1 or bigger in the last 35 years
- Top Irish trainer, Willie Mullins, is yet to win this race
- Just 1 of the last 15 winners hadn’t won a Grade 1 Chase before
- None of the last 11 winners had run in more than 16 chases
- Be wary of horses older than 10 – they are just 2 winners since 1977
16:10 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase 3m 7f
Pluses….
- The Irish have won 9 of the last 12 runnings
- Respect Enda Bolger-trained runners (won 4 times)
- 8 of the last 11 winners carried 10-13 or less
- 15 of the last 19 winners came from the top three in the betting
- 7 of the last 12 ran in the December Cross Country race here
- Respect Nina Carberry, Richard Johnson and Davy Russell-ridden horses (8 from 12 between them)
- 8 or the last 12 winners were aged 10 or older
- Trainer Philip Hobbs is 2 from 9 (5 placed in the top 5 too)
- The favourites are just 1 from the last 10
Negatives….
- Debutants over these fences/course have a poor record
- Avoid horses aged 7 or younger – they are only 2 from 92
- Horses rated 126 or less have a very poor record
- Willie Mullins is 0 from 11
- Paul Nicholls is 0 from 16
16:50 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m ½f
Pluses….
- 8 of the last 12 winners had run just 3 times over hurdles before
- 19 of the last 30 (win/place) were French bred
- Respect Fillies
- The last 6 winners all came from the bottom half of the weights/handicap
- 9 of the last 12 had run in the last 25 days
- Pipe, Nicholls, Elliot and King-trained horses do well
- 4 of the last 5 winners returned between 25/1 and 40/1
- Respect horses wearing headgear
- 11 of the last 11 winners were rated between 124-133
Negatives….
- No recent winner had last raced in January or further back
- Trainers Willie Mullins, Philip Hobbs and Venetia Williams are 0 from 28 between them
- Only 2 winners had run in a handicap hurdle before
- Not winner had raced at Cheltenham before
17:30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 2m ½f
Pluses….
- 22 of the last 24 had won last time out
- Respect Irish-trained runners (17 from 33)
- 4 of the last 7 winners were won by UK-based trainers
- 16 of the last 24 came from the top 6 in the betting
- 18 of the last 24 were Irish-bred
- 9 of the last 16 winners were second season horses
- 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 14 of the last 16 had their debut runs in Ireland
- 10 of the last 14 had been beaten in a race before
- 5 of the last 7 winners returned between 14/1 and 40/1
- Respect Willie Mullins (8 winners), but is just 2 from last 27 runners
- The Irish lead the British 18-6
Negatives….
- Avoid horses with 4 or more NH Flat runs
- 4 year-olds are 1 from 50 since 2000
- Paul Nicholls & Nicky Henderson don’t often target the race
- 1 winning favourite in the last 10 runnings
Leave a Reply
Want to join the discussion?Feel free to contribute!