Stat of the Day, 7th March 2017

Monday’s Result :

4.20 Lingfield : Goring One @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 10/3 In touch, headway chasing leaders before 6th (5 out), 2nd before 3 out, held and one pace from next

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

2.00 Southwell…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Crosse Fire11/4 BOG

Why?

On a day that looks tough for a statistical viewpoint, I’m going to keep it simple, but that doesn’t mean that (a) I don’t fancy it nor (b) I haven’t put the effort in!

Anyway, we’ve got a 5 yr old gelding with a decent if unspectacular 5 from 29 (17.24% SR) record on the All-Weather, that has generated 5.63pts profit from blind backing for an ROI of 19.4%, but it’s a different story under today’s conditions, as…

…all five wins have come from his twenty runs here at Southwell and this 25% strike rate has produced 14.63pts profit (+73.2% ROI), making him of serious interest now and of those 20 Southwell runs…

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 18.6pts (+116.4%) over this 5f course and distance
  • 4/15 (26.7%) for 12.4pts (+82.4%) ridden by Kieran O’Neill
  • 4/11 (36.4%) for 16.4pts (148.7%) ridden by Kieran O’Neill over this 5f course and distance
  • 2/2 (100%) for 9.8pts (+490%) in March
  • and 1/1 when ridden by Kieran O’Neill over this 5f course and distance in March.

On top of this, when Kieran has ridden any Scott Dixon horse on this track, the partnership is worth 12 wins from 87 (13.8% SR) for 31.8pts (+36.5% ROI), which is pretty good for “bet and forget” betting.

Yet, if we disregard their 0/18 record in non-handicaps and we’re left with 12 wins from 69 (17.4% SR) for 49.8pts (+72.% ROI) in handicaps, which is excellent and includes a record of 10/47 (21.3%) for 59.4pts (+126.4%) at trips shorter than 7 furlongs and in hcps over this 5f course and distance, they are 6/21 (28.6%) for 37.7pts (+179.6%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Crosse Fire 11/4 BOG which was available with Bet365, Betbright, Betfair Sports and/or Hills at 6.15pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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