Stat of the Day, 10th March 2017

Thursday’s Result :

7.45 Newcastle : War Department @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 7/2 In rear, headway over 1f out, ridden to lead entering final furlong, headed towards finish and beaten by half a length

Friday’s pick goes in the…

2.55 Leicester…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Global Dream10/3 BOG

Why?

Trainer Caroline Bailey hasn’t had many runners over the last four weeks, but the seven that have run have finished 1133111, with a 3 from 3 record in chases!

And if you backed every single one of her handicappers since the start of 2014, no filtering, no leaving any out etc, you have found yourself 44 winners from 264 bets at a strike rate of 1 in 6 (16.66%) and a £20 stake on each would have returned a cool £1620 in profit, equivalent to 30.7% of your stakes.

These are excellent numbers, but (i) nobody wants to back all of them, surely? and (ii) how do they stand up under today’s selection/conditions?

Well, let’s have a look at the 264 in a little more detail to see if we’ve got an angle. So, of the 264…

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago are 36/193 (18.7%) for 73.1pts (+37.9%)
  • those finishing in top 4 LTO are 30/140 (21.4%) for 72.9pts (+52.2%)
  • LTO winners are 8/40 (20%) for 9.83pts (+24.6%)
  • those running in March are 8/30 (26.7%) for 73.7pts (+245.7%)
  • those ridden by Adam Pogson are also 8/30 (26.7%), but for 54pts (+180.1%)
  • and on heavy ground : 5/24 20.8%) for 3.4pts (+14.2%)

AND…from the above : those who finished in the first four home LTO, 11-60 days ago are now 25/102 (24.5% SR) for 49.7pts (+48.7% ROI), with those who won LTO 11-60 days back winning 7 of 29 (24.1%) for 17.65pts (+60.9%)

As for our selection, Global Dream, I’d expect him to relish conditions today, as so far in his career under similar conditions to today…

  • in 12 races under Adam Pogson has 4 wins and places (2w, 1pl from 3 in chases)
  • in 11 races in the Jan-March quarter : 4 wins and a place (3w, 1pl from 4 in chases)
  • in 10 races priced at 5/1 and shorter: 4 wins and 2 places (3w, 1pl from 5 in chases)
  • in 9 races in fields of 7 or fewer runners : 3 wins and 2 places (2w, 2pl from 5 in chases)
  • in 9 races going right handed : 3 wins and 2 places (2w, 1pl from 3 in chases)
  • in 5 races on heavy ground : 2 wins and a place (1w, 1pl from 3 in chases)
  • and in 4 outings here at Leicester : 3 wins and a place (2w, 1pl from 3 in chases)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Global Dream 10/3 BOG which was available with Betway and Coral at 5.30pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG on offer elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.55 Leicester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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