Stat of the Day, 11th March 2017

Friday’s Result :

2.55 Leicester : Global Dream @ 10/3 BOG WON at 2/1 Led, jumped left 2nd and 6th, headed 8th, led after 11th, not fluent and headed 4 out, switched right before last, switched left and rallied to lead flat, stayed on to win by six lengths

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

4.45 Sandown…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Twenty Eight Guns3/1 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old mare with a chasing record reading 41211, having won LTO in this grade over 2m 4.5f on soft ground at Wincanton 51 days ago under today’s jockey, so conditions are very similar indeed.

Her trainer Michael Scudamore has got his yard bang in form right now with 5 winners from 13 in the last 2 weeks, from which his chasers have finished 1P111!

Mind you, that’s no real surprise as backing Michael’s chasers blindly is actually quite profitable. Since 2010, his figures in the sphere are 53 winners from 326 (16.3% SR) returning level stakes profits of 126.1pts at an excellent ROI of some 38.7% and to repeat myself, that’s from backing ALL of them!

However to narrow down the number of bets, increase the strike rate and/or ROI, here are some profitable and logical filters that are applicable today…

  • handicap chasers are 51/301 (16.9%) for 102.8pts (+34.2%)
  • those who last ran 16-300 days ago (ie had a rest, but not too rusty!) are 50/258 (19.4%) for 186.6pts (+72.3%)
  • on Soft ground : 13/72 (18.1%) for 36.3pts (+50.3%)
  • 7 yr olds are 13/62 (21%) for 79pts (+127.5%)
  • females are 18/52 (34.6%) for 45.8pts (+88.1%)
  • LTO winners are 13/48 (27.1%) for 5.3pts (+11%)
  • and at Class 3 : 10/41 (24.4%) for 17.6pts (+42.8%)

As I said earlier Twenty Eight Guns is 41211 over fences and in the context of today’s race, she is…

  • 3 from 4 at odds of 10/3 and shorter, 3/4 in cheekpieces, 3 from 3 on soft ground
  • 3 from 3 after a break of 3 to 8 weeks, 3/3 in fields of 5-8 runners,
  • 2/3 under jockey Tom Scudamore, 2 from 3 carrying 11st 12lbs, 1 from 1 at Class 3,
  • 1 from 1 going right handed

and although she is 0/1 over today’s declared trip of 2m4f, she is actually 3 from 3 at 2m3.5f & 2m4,5f!

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Twenty Eight Guns 3/1 BOG which was available with Paddy Power and half a dozen others at 6.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.45 Sandown

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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