Stat of the Day, 13th March 2017

Saturday’s Result :

4.45 Sandown : Twenty Eight Guns @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Led until 9th, lost 2nd 4 out, 4th and well held from next

Monday’s pick goes in the…

7.50 Chelmsford…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Rag Tatter3/1 BOG


An in-form (as good as you’ll get entering a maiden!) 3 yr old gelding who has finished 2322 in his last four runs and will be aiming to go one better and break his duck.

His trainer Kevin Ryan has already saddled up 7 winners from just 36 runners (19.4% SR) here at Chelmsford and the resultant 30.9pts of level stakes profit represents a return of 85.9% of stakes and of those 36 runners…

  • males are 6/33 (18.2%) for 29.95pts (+90.8%)
  • those with at least 15 days rest since their last run are 7/28 (25%) for 38.9pts +138.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/16 (+18.75%) for 17.8pts (+108%)
  • over this 6f trip : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22pts (+169.2%)
  • and those ridden by Kevin Stott are 4 from 8 (50%) for 22.28pts (+278.5%)

And not only is Kevin Stott in good recent form (61121 this month so far), if you backed him each time he’d ridden a Kevin Ryan horse priced at 11/8 to 12/1 since 2013, you’d have 46 winning bets from 192 (24% SR) and a very attractive 102.9pts profit (+53.6% ROI) with a 10 from 38 (26.3%) record in maidens that has generated 24.3pts (+64%) profit.

In addition to the above trainer/jockey specific stats, all 3 yr olds running here at Chelmsford at odds of 11/2 and shorter off the back of finishing 2nd or 3rd in each of the or last two outings have gone on to finally win on 35 of 108 (32.4% SR) occasions for 6.72pts (+6.23% ROI), provided they hadn’t ran in the last 10 days.

Of those 108 door-knockers…

  • Class 4/5 runners are 33/90 (36.7%) for 16.18pts (+18%)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 23/72 (31.9%) for 16.23pts (+22.5%)
  • non-handicappers are 23/62 (37.1%) for 3.91pts (+6.31%)
  • and in maidens : 23/61 (37.7%) for 4.91pts (+8.05%)

And finally, I should point out that Rag Tatter is Mr Ryan’s only runner of the day and since 2008 when sending out just one horse, he’s had 101 winners from 569 (17.8% SR) for profits of 574.5pts at an ROI of 101%, with runners in maidens winning 25 of 134 (18.7%) for 82.7pts (+61.7%)

…giving usa 1pt win bet on Rag Tatter 3/1 BOG which was available with Betbright, Betfred, SkyBet and Totesport at 6.05pm on Sunday, but please DO take the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 if you possibly can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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