Stat of the Day, 16th March 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

3.15 Southwell : Brigadoon @ 9/2 BOG WON at 6/1 Led after 2f, made rest, clear over 3f out, increased lead over 2f out, eased in final furlong to win by 10 lengths

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

7.15 Chelmsford…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Upavon4/1 BOG

Why?

A 7 yr old gelding trained by Stuart Williams and I’m always interested in Stuart Williams’ A/W handicappers, providing the market suggests there’s at least a chance of a run for my money and the simple reason behind this pick is that since the start of 2013, it’s actually profitable to back them all!

Since 1/1/13 : Stuart Williams + A/W hcps = 89/513 (17.4$ SR) for 63.2pts (+12.3% ROI) and I could leave it there, but I wouldn’t want you to feel short changed, so without complicating matters too much, here are just some of the angles you can take to refine the main stat : all of which apply today, of course!

So, of the 513 we started with…

  • those last seen 4-60 days ago (rested but not rusty!) = 80/449 (17.8%) for 68.3pts (+15.2%)
  • over 4f to 1m : 78/411 (19%) for 97.9pts (+23.8%)
  • top 6 finish LTO = 72/378 (19.1%) for 76.2pts (+20.2%)
  • males are 68/373 (18.2%) for 66.4pts (+17.8%)
  • at odds of 9/4 to 12/1 : 74/371 (20%) for 132.4pts (+35.7%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 22/135 (16.3%) for 25.6pts (+18.9%)
  • at Class 3 : 8/46 (17.4%) for 10.4pts (+22.7%)
  • and 7 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 11.2pts (+27.4%)

…which points towards…a 1pt win bet on Upavon 4/1 BOG which was very widely available  at 6.40pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.15 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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