Stat of the Day, 17th March 2017

Thursday’s Result :

7.15 Chelmsford : Upavon @ 4/1 BOG 9th at 10/3 Reared start, in rear, headway on inside over 1f out, no impression

Friday’s pick goes in the…

7.45 Wolverhampton…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Oor Jock7/2 BOG


A 9 yr old gelding in decent enough form, having finished 1521 in his last four outings, starting with a win here at Wolverhampton over 7f and ending with a runner-up finish down at today’s 6f here and then a win also over 6f at Dundalk last time out.

The win here at Wolverhampton was the only previous occasion that Stephen Donohoe had ridden Oor Jock, so technically they defend a 100% strike rate together! Those two runs here at Wolves I’ve mentioned are his only two visits, so he’s had little issue adapting to the tapeta and that’s probably down to his breeding, which I’ll expand upon shortly.

Firstly, I want to quickly mention his trainer Adrian McGuinness, who is quite possibly unknown to most of you, but is a shrewd operator from his base around 15 miles North of Dublin and is fond of sending raiding parties across the water to the UK to run on the Tapeta surface here at Wolverhampton and 5 of the 11 runners coming here have been winners (45.5% SR) generating level stakes profits of 4.45pts (+40.5% ROI).

And of those 11 runners (all ran in handicaps)…

  • At Class 6 = 4/9 (44.4%) for 2.14pts (+23.8%)
  • at odds shorter than 11/2 : 5/6 (83.3%) for 9.45pts (+157.5%)
  • and Class 6 runners priced below 11/2 are 4/5 (80% SR) for 6.14pts (+122.9% ROI)

Now, I suggested a little further up that Oor Jock‘s breeding might have helped with his transition to Tapeta, well he’s by Shamardal, whose offspring running in handicaps on tapeta who didn’t run on this surface last time out are 19/89 (21.4% SR) for 16.3pts (+18.03% ROI) profit, from which…

  • here at Wolverhampton : 19/72 (26.4%) for 33.3pts (+46.2%)
  • males are 15/63 (23.8%) for 12.7pts (+20.1%)
  • at Class 6 : 11/34 (32.4%) for 30.2pts (+88.7%)
  • over 6f : 12/32 (37.5%) for 44.3pts (+138.5%)
  • and after a break of 26 to 45 days : 7/19 (36.8%) for 30.8pts (+162.1%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Oor Jock 7/2 BOG offered by Betfair Sports & SkyBet at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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