Stat of the Day, 20th March 2017

Saturday’s Result :

6.45 Wolverhampton : Amazement @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/4 Chased leaders, ridden to challenge over 1f out, led approaching final furlong, ran on well to win by a length and a half.

Monday’s pick goes in the…

5.30 Kempton…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Athassel4/1 BOG


An 8yr old gelding who has thrived since a switch to David Evans’ yard, winning 6 and placing three times from 10 starts (finished 4th on the other!), all in A/W handicaps with that 60% strike rate yielding profits of 22.25pts (+222.5% ROI), of which he is 4/4 at 6f, 2/2 at Class 5 and 2/2 over 6f at C5.

Impressive enough, but that’s not why I’ve picked him!

Those who’ve read my “work” (and I use the term loosely) for some while now, will recall that I’m a keen note taker and saver of micro-systems and this horse cropped up several times tonight, but I’ll just give you three (fairly short!) examples…

Firstly…David Evans / hcps / 12-1 max price / LTO winner / former C&D winner = 18/80 (22.5% SR) for 36.5pts (+45.6% ROI) since 2012 with runners at 5.5/6 furlongs winning 5 of 23 (21.7%) for 20.4pts (+88.9%)

Secondly…UK All-Weather / 2011-17 / LTO winners 1 to 5 days ago / now OR of 0 to 7lbs higher / same class & trip as LTO / now running at a venue where they’ve previously won over course and distance = 52/141 (36.9%) for 31.1pts (+21.1%)

And finally (for today, anyway)…David Evans / 1 runner all day / Class 3 to 6 handicaps / priced at Evens to 5-1 = 23/79 (29.1%) for 22.9pts (+29% ROI) since 2010.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Athassel 4/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair Sports, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.30 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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