Stat of the Day, 21st March 2017

Monday’s Result :

5.30 Kempton : Athassel @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 3/1 Went left start mid-division, headway entering final 2f, soon switched right, effort inside final furlong, not quicken towards finish, beaten by less than a length.

Monday’s pick goes in the…

5.35 Southwell…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

State Residence @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

6th on handicap debut LTO 25 days ago, but a little unlucky to be that far back after experiencing traffic problems and is interesting now he has been eased a couple of pounds.

Since the start of 2014, in Class 5/6 handicaps at odd of 5/2 to 15/2, jockey Josh Doyle has 12 winners from 54 rides (22.2% SR) for trainer David O’Meara recording level stakes profits of 21.4pts (+39.6% ROI) and of these 54 rides…

• 3yr olds are 7/18 (38.9%) for 29.4pts (+163.5%)
• in apprentice handicaps : 5/17 (29.4%) for 17.2pts (+100.9%)
• and on 3 yr olds in apprentice handicaps : 2/6 (33.3%) for 8.62pts (+143.6%)

Yet, despite this being only his second crack at a handicap and him being lowered a couple of pounds State Residence still finds himself at the head of the weights/official ratings here, but that’s not necessarily a hindrance, as (and this isn’t as complicated as in looks in text form!)…

…since 2010 / Southwell All-Weather / 6f to 1m4f / males aged 3 to 6 yrs old / ran 6 to 60 days ago / now top rated in a Class 5/6 race and priced shorter than 7/1 = 184/588 (31.3% SR) for 69pts (+11.7% ROI) profit, from which…

• those who ran in a hcp LTO : 133/434 (31%) for 66.4pts (+15.3%)
• those now running in a hcp : 127/423 (30%) for 65.7pts (+15.5%)
• those who last ran 21 to 60 days back : 75/223 (33.6%) for 52.4pts (+23.5%)
• and in apprentices’ races : 13/33 (39.4%) for 32.2pts (+97.6%)

AND…those running in a handicap 21 to 60 after a handicap run last time out are 44/132 (33.3%) for 52.8pts (+40% ROI) with a 3/10 (30%) record in apprentice handicaps producing 8.4pts (+84%) profit.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on State Residence @ 10/3 BOG which was offered by Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 5.55pm on Monday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.35 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.