Stat of the Day, 22nd March 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

5.35 Southwell : State Residence @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 7/2 report to follow later

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

5.00 Newcastle…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Spirit of the Vale7/2 BOG

Why?

A 4yr old filly in great form, with finishes of 141 in her last three starts, with both victories coming from her only two previous cracks at this track and trip, the latest of which was 13 days ago.

She won with a fair bit in hand last time and now aims to take her Newcastle record to 3 from 3 for trainer Oliver Greenall.

Oliver’s not the most well-known trainer out there, not does he have the biggest or best string at his disposal, but he has discovered an area he can do well in and that would appear to be with fairly popular A/W runners…

…as his A/W runners priced at 2/1 to 6/1 are 6 from 8 (75% SR) for 25.1pts (+313.4%). Now I know it’s a small sample size, but a closer analysis of those 8 races convinced me that this filly was worth a punt, because of how today’s race characteristics tie in the 8 previous runners, such as…

  • in hcps : 6/8 (75%) for 25.1pts (+313.4%)
  • here at Newcastle : 6/7 (85.7%) for 26.1pts (+372.5%)
  • at Class 6 : 5/6 (83.3%) for 20.2pts (+336.4%)
  • within 15 days of last run : 5/5 (100%) for 23.68pts (+473.6%)
  • 4 yr olds are 3/4 (75%) for 14.36pts (+359%)
  • and females are 2/2 (100%) for 9.28pts (+464%)

and whilst this is a fairly simplistic approach (for a change!), it’s one I feel will bear fruit…

…hence…a 1pt win bet on Spirit of the Vale 7/2 BOG which was pretty widely available at 5.55pm on Tuesday, but DO grab the 4/1 BOG offered by Betfair Sportsbook if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.00 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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