Stat of the Day, 23rd March 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

5.00 Newcastle : Spirit of the Vale @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 9/4 Slowly into stride in rear, headway in centre from over 2f out, stayed on to chase winner inside final furlong

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

7.50 Chelmsford…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Rosie Crowe5/1 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old mare, beaten by just 0.75 lengths last time out here over course and distance five weeks ago. She runs off the same mark (50) here, but is boosted by the booking of 5lb claimer Charlie Bennett to ease the burden somewhat.

Trainer Shaun Harris has got his horses running well at present and he’s no stranger to putting this jockey up for a ride or two and they have been quite successful together.

In fact the partnership is 10 from 79 (12.7% SR) for 35.7pts (+45.2% ROI) profit and whilst we’ve had better strike rates/ROIs for our headline stats in the past, these are actually excellent figures for a jockey still claiming 5lbs.

We can, of course, tweak and refine the data to fit to today’s contest and here similar race conditions, those 79 races have produced the following…

  • in handicaps : 10/72 (13.9%) for 42.7pts (+59.3%)
  • when Charlie claims his 5lbs : 7/68 (10.3%) for 22.9pts (+33.7%)
  • on the All-Weather : 7/56 (12.5%) for 27.5pts (+49.2%)
  • at Class 6 : 9/50 (18%) for 57.2pts (+114.4%)
  • at odds of 12/1 and shorter : 9/40 (22.5%) for 44.2pts (+110.6%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 4/15 (26.7%) for 23pts (+153.3%)

…pointing us towards…a 1pt win bet on Rosie Crowe 5/1 BOG which was pretty widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but DO grab the 11/2 BOG offered by Hills if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *