Stat of the Day, 28th March 2017

Monday’s Result :

2.10 Market Rasen : Norse Light @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 6/1 Held up towards rear, headway approaching 2 out, went 2nd and kept on flat, no chance with winner

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

3.30 Hexham…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Modulus5/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4 handicap hurdle over two and a half mikes on heavy ground should prove a test of stamina for these 10 runners, but our 8 yr old gelding is in fine fettle and seems to relish these conditions.

He was fitted with a visor 4 starts ago and has since finished 1611, all in Class 4 handicap hurdles under today’s jockey with that run starting with a win over 2m 4.5f on heavy ground at Uttoxeter, so pretty similar to today’s contest.

His record over hurdles in decent, but of particular note are the following records…

  • 3/6 within 15 days of his last run
  • 3/6 in fields of 6 to 10 runners
  • 3 wins and a runner-up finish from 5 starts at odds below 6/1
  • 3/4 in the visor as mentioned earlier
  • and probably most important here, 2/2 on heavy (more on that later!)

In addition to the above, there are some substantial numbers suggesting another good run, as since 2012, 7 to 9 yr old male handicap hurdlers rated (OR) 90 to 120 carrying 9st 13lbs to 11st 4lbs, 3-30 days after a win in a handicap hurdle last time out (really not as complex in theory as it is in text) are 115/549 (21% SR) for 145.4pts (+26.5% ROI), including…

  • 104/520 (20%) for 152pts (+29.2%) when priced at longer than 6/4
  • 53/223 (23.8%) for 61.5pts (+29.6%) at Class 4
  • 15/61 (24.6%) for 16.9pts (+27.7%) on heavy ground
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 5.26pts (+47.8%) here at Hexham

And one other thing I picked up from Matt is what he calls the rule of two. Basically if something happens once it could be a fluke, if it happens twice then there’s possibly (usually) something to it and I mentioned that Modulus was 2 from 2 on heavy ground. Well, horses either “get” heavy ground or they don’t and those that do have a massive advantage in adverse conditions, leading to my final set of data for today…

In UK handicap hurdle contests on heavy ground since 2008, runners with 2 or more previous wins on heavy are 92/575 (16% SR) for 239.6pts (+41.7% ROI), including of relevance/interest here…

  • those last seen 6-45 days ago : 75/453 (16.6%) for 251.3pts (+55.5%)
  • 7 to 11 yr olds are 73/432 (16.9%) for 297pts (+68.8%)
  • at Class 4  : 38/225 (16.9%) for 65.1pts (+28.9%)
  • over 2m3f to 2m4.5f : 29/145 (20%) for 218.7pts (+150.9%)
  • and here at Hexham : 5/23 (21.7%) for 29.9pts (+130%)

AND…7 to 11 yr olds racing over 2m3f to 2m4.5f at Classes 3 to 5, 6 to 45 days after thier last run are 14/74 (18.9% SR) for 185.4pts (+250.5% ROI) with 8 winners from 39 (20.5%) for 149.9pts (+384.5%) since the start of 2014.

…which points to…a 1pt win bet on Modulus 5/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, Betbright & Ladbrokes at 6.00pm on Monday, but those of you not banned/restricted by SkyBet should grab their 11/2 BOG whilst you can!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.30 Hexham

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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