Stat of the Day, 29th March 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

3.30 Hexham : Modulus @ 5/1 BOG WON at 6/1 Tracked leader, mistake 1st, outpaced before 2 out, headway before last and upsides leader when mistake, rallied run-in to lead last 50 yards to win by half a length

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

2.00 Southwell…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Treaty of Rome5/1 BOG

Why?

OK, here we have a very consistent USA-bred 5 yr old gelding who comes here in good form, despite not winning often enough. He’s admittedly only 1 from 7 on the A/W, but has never finished out of the first four home and has been a runner-up three times and has also finished third once.

His only win on the A/W so far came here at Southwell under today’s jockey Tony Hamilton and he has been a runner-up on his two previous efforts over course and distance.

And now to the numbers…

Since the start of 2008, USA-bred males are 386/2027 (19% SR) for 623.7pts (+30.8% ROI) here at Southwell, from which…

  • those with 12 or fewer previous runs here are 344/1689 (20.4%) for 608.4pts (+36%)
  • in handicaps : 253/1477 (17.1%) for 563.5pts (+38.2%)
  • at Class 5 : 130/679 (19.2%) for 251.6pts (+37.1%)
  • in Class 5 handicaps : 91/500 (18.2%) for 277.5pts (+55.5%)
  • in Class 5 handicaps with 12 or fewer previous runs here : 77/399 (19.3%) for 218.1pts (+54.7%)
  • and in Class 5 handicaps with 12 or fewer previous runs here 2014-17 : 23/93 (24.7%) for 231pts (+248.4%)

In addition to his country of origin being key to possible success, his actual breeding might point the way as offspring of War Front are 25/104 (24% SR) for 67.1pts (+64.6% ROI) over 6 furlongs, whilst his 5/6 yr olds are 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 52.1pts (+158% ROI) profit…

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Treaty of Rome5/1 BOG which was available from Betway, Betbright, Hills, BetVictor & SkyBet at 6.10pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.00 Southwell

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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