14:10 Southwell: Treaty Of Rome @ 7/2 Non runner
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Lord Ballim @ 11/4
Lord Ballim was a good winner last time out here at Carlisle, and the way he was staying on at the finish then suggests that the extra distance today will bring out further improvement, and negate the extra weight he will be carrying here due to that victory.
He is racing against quite a few rivals that look well exposed, therefore if he can put in a repeat performance, he will be very tough to stop.
The following stats are applicable here.
- trainer Nigel Hawke for the last 30 days is 10/27 (37.04%) for 6.16pts
- at this course over the past year Hawke is 4/8 (50%) for 9.92pts
- with LTO winners he is 13/35 (37.14%) for 28.69pts
- Lord Ballim is 1/2 (50%) at Carlisle (the other was a third place finish) for 4.50pts
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Lord Ballim @ 11/4 BOG which was available from the majority of the main bookes at 19:o0 on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.