Race of the Day – 13 Apr

Race of the Day – 16:10 Chelmsford

This is a competitive looking ten furlong handicap on the all weather at Chelmsford.

Estrella Eria is the current favoruite, and she is chasing a four timer, having won three times over course and distance last autumn. She is now 19 pounds higher than when she started on that run, but there is a chance she has improved over the winter, therefore if running well after a break, she can be right in the thick of things again.

Hannington is ridden by Silvestre De Sousa, who has a very good record here at Chelmsford. Over the past five years he’s had 42 winners (23.86%) for a level stakes profit of 32.98.

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Estrella Eria has a lovely full line of green, highlighting how well suited she is by today’s conditions.

No other runner has more than one section of green, although Hannington does also have three sections of amber, so has shown reasonable form in similar conditions.

The Pace report shows us that leaders here over this distance have a brilliant record. A little overt 26% of them have gone on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 95.90. With prominent runners being comfortably next best, there is a definite case for siding with runners that are usually quickly out of the stalls.

My Mo and Outlaw Torn look the most likely to be leading early on, as they have easily the highest pace scores, based on the last four races of each runner.

Lower drawn horses have a definite advantage based on the draw tab, and with My Mo and Outlaw Torn drawn in stalls five and three respectively, the early pace looks sure to be here.

This could be a big help to Estrella Eria, as she is drawn in between these two in stall four, so may be able to sit just in behind them and get a good tow into the race.


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