Stat of the Day, 19th April 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

3.55 Southwell : Custard The Dragon @ 2/1 BOG WON at 7/2 Tracked leaders on inside, 2nd over 3f out, challenged from 2f out, ridden 1f out, led and edged right well inside final furlong, bumped rival close home, held on by a head.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

3.35 Newmarket…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Roly Poly9/2 BOG


A winner at Group 2 and Group 3 in the past and only beaten by a short head in a Group 1 contest last time out. She lost to her stable mate Brave Anna who reopposes today, but our pick is 3lbs better off this time around.

She’s trained by AP O’Brien, whose record here on the Rowley course at Newmarket is excellent over the last 6 seasons with 20 winners from 101 runners (19.8% SR) generating level stakes profits of 93.75pts at an ROI of 92.8%. And of these 101 runners…

  • those competing for prizes of £30,000 or more are 19/85 (22.4%) for 107.1pts (+126%)
  • Class 1 runners are 16/85 (18.8%) for 86.5pts (+101.8%)
  • those ridden by Ryan Moore are 12/49 (24.5%) for 36.2pts (+73.8%)
  • females are 9/34 (26.5%) for 66.9pts (+196.6%)
  • and on Good ground, they are 6/24 (25%) for 31.9pts (+133.1%)

AND…when Ryan Moore rides in a Class 1 fillies race worth over £30k for AP O’Brien, he has won 6 of 12 (50% SR) for 37pts (+308.2% ROI) with the last 6 such qualifiers finishing 151211!

…which gives us…a 1pt win bet on Roly Poly9/2 BOG which was on offer with both Betfair Sports and Paddy Power at 6.05pm on Tuesday with plenty of more than acceptable 4/1 BOG on offer elsewhere. And if you often struggle to get a bet on, Black Type are 9/2 non-BOG about this one. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.35 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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