Stat of the Day, 20th April 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

3.35 Newmarket : Roly Poly @ 9/2 BOG 7th at 7/2 Led, headed 4f out, pushed along long and lost place 3f out, some headway inside final furlong.

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

7.00 Taunton…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Ujagar9/2 BOG

Why?

There might be a little more than meets the eye with this one and whilst I’m not suggesting any wrongdoing, there’s more than a hint of a trainer “playing the handicap system”.

This 6 yr old gelding actually makes his first start for Kevin Bishop today, but prior to the move, he ran in four hurdles contests for another yard, finishing 9th of 10, 10th of 12 and then 4th of 4 in the first three of those contests, beaten by a grand total of some 322 lengths!

He was then “awarded” an opening handicap mark of 74 and was dropped down in class to today’s Class 5 and switched from soft ground to good ground for his handicap debut here here at Taunton a fortnight ago, where despite a couple of mistakes that cost him some ground/momentum, he was able to win over course and distance!

He now goes off a mark of 80, but this looks a poor race and if he can keep the errors to a minimum, there’s no reason why he can’t win again.

Stats-wise, the move to Kevin Bishop is interesting to me, as he’s one of the trainers I keep an eye out for in handicaps during March & April, because since 2010, his handicappers are 15/66 (22.7% SR) for 209.5pts (+317.5% ROI) during those two months.

And of those 66 runners…

  • those racing at Class 4/5 are 12/51 (23.5%) for 201.3pts (+394.7%)
  • hurdlers are 10/43 (23.3%) for 186.9pts (+434.6%)
  • those with a run in the last 45 days are 12/42 (28.6%) for 211.6pts (+503.8%)
  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 12/37 (32.4%) for 109.1pts (+295%)
  • and LTO winners are 3/11 (27.3%) for 18.15pts (+165%)

AND…Class 4/5 handicap hurdlers running within 45 days of a top 5 finish last time out are 4 from 12 (33.3% SR) for 65.3pts (+544% ROI) profit.

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Ujagar9/2 BOG which was on offer with Bet365, BetVictor and Ladbrokes at 6.55pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 7.00 Taunton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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