Stat of the Day, 21st April 2017

Thursday’s Result :

7.00 Taunton : Ujagar @ 9/2 BOG 5th at 9/4 Held up rear division, headway before 2 out, kept on same pace

Friday’s pick goes in the…

4.40 Newbury…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Bowson Fred5/1 BOG


So, we’ve got a 5 yr old gelding with 5 wins under his belt at this trip already and who has also been ridden to victory three times by today’s jockey, 3lb claimer, Nathan Evans, who has been in fine form of late, winning eight times and placing on a further two occasions from his 26 rides over the last fortnight. Many of those rides have been for today’s trainer Mick Easterby, whose horses have 10 wins and 5 places from 31 in that same two week period.

The Easterby / Evans alliance is one to be reckoned with nowadays, as together they are 58/372 (15.6% SR) for 67.1pts (+18% ROI) in handicap contests and those returns from blind unfiltered betting are excellent. We can (and will!) however seek to reduce the number of bets placed whilst increasing the ROI as follows….

  • horses finishing in the first 4 home LTO are 37/191 (19.4%) for 36.2pts (+19%)
  • those ridden by a 3lb claimer are 23/110 (20.9%) for 25.2pts (+23%)
  • over the minimum 5f sprint : 16/72 (22.2%) for 59.2pts (+82.2%)
  • and on good to firm ground : 10/53 (18.9%) for 35.2pts (+66.5%)

The above stat regarding Nathan’s 3lb claim isn’t surprising at all, as since 2009, the Easterby horses that have been ridden by a 3lb claimer in Flat (turf) handicaps at odds of 10/1 and shorter have won 22 of 73 (30.1% SR) for profits of 79.1pts (+108.3% ROI), including…

  • those who failed to win LTO : 20/59 (33.9%) for 80.9pts (+137.2%)
  • those who last raced 6-45 days ago are 15/55 (27.3%) for 55.7pts (+101.2%)
  • those finishing 2nd to 7th 6-45 days earlier are 13/37 (35.1%) for 56.9pts (+153.9%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 10/27 (37%) for 47.1pts (+174.5%)
  • and those ridden by Nathan Evans are 8/17 (47.1%) for 35.6pts (+209.2%)

…all of which gives us…a 1pt win bet on Bowson Fred5/1 BOG which was on offer with Betfair Sports and Paddy Power at 6.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.40 Newbury

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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