Race of the Day – 3 May

Race of the Day – 18:05 Brighton

This is quite a low grade handicap being run over seven furlongs at Brighton, for horses rated 0-55.

Tidal’s Baby is one of the few runners that has shown any worthwhile recent form, with second placed finishes in each of his last three races. Those races were all on the all weather surfaces, however he does have some previous form on good turf ground and is now a full 14 pounds lower than for his last victory, therefore at first glance he appears to have a decent chance in this race.

Misu Moneypenney is a long way clear of the field when looking at the Speed Ratings. She has a mark of 73, with the next closest on 55.

The Instant Expert report helps to highlight the lack of any real quality in the race, as even when switched to the ‘Place’ setting, there are no sections of green.

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Tidal’s Baby is one of the more consistent runners in the field, having four sections of amber and one of red, having not been placed on three starts here at Brighton.

Welsh Inlet has three sections of amber and has been fairly useful when running at this course, she is also three pounds lower than for her last win, therefore if replicating some of her better form, she has definite place claims in this.

The Pace report shows us that early leaders here over this distance have a very good record, with 19.57% of them winning the race, for a level stakes profit of 91.87.

Dr Red Eye has the highest pace score based on the last four races for each runner, and he looks the most likely to be taking them along during the first furlong. This nine year old has fallen a long way down the ratings compared to his high mark of 78, but he did manage to win from this mark on the all weather at Wolverhampton in January, therefore if able to transfer that form to turf, he maybe a little overpriced at 14/1.

The Trainer Statistics report is free to all users on a Wednesday, and it highlights what a good record Tony Carroll has at Brighton over the last year. He’s had 12 winners (23.53%) and 25 places (49.02%) from 51 runners, for level stakes profits of 33.50 and 44.24 respectively. He runs Tidal’s Bay here today.

In a race that will not take much winning at all, and one I wouldn’t be having a bet in, all of the above points to Tidal’s Bay being the most likely winner.

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