Stat of the Day, 5th May 2017

Thursday’s Result :

5.10 Lingfield : Bamako du Chatelet @ 7/2 BOG 7th at 11/4 Mid-division, headway over 1f out, never on terms

Friday’s pick goes in the…

5.00 Musselburgh…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Cosmic Ray3/1 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding is quickly turned back out just 6 days after finishing 4th in a tough-looking 14 runner handicap at Haydock. Yet, despite only finishing fourth, he was actually only beaten by three quarters of a length and had won his previous outing, so he’s clearly in good nick.

That win two starts ago also came after only a short layoff (5 days that time) so the quick reappearance shouldn’t be too much of a concern and as both that win and his latest near-miss were both in Class 5 contests, being able to run off an unchanged mark in a lower grade is also a positive.

These short rests seem to have become a successful MO of his trainer, Les Eyre, of late as since the start of 2016, Les’ record with handicappers running 4 to 7 days after their last effort stands at 6 winners from 22 (27.3% SR) for 15.05pts (+68.4% ROI) and although that a fairly small sample size, those runners do share many similarities with the entry of Cosmic Ray here, such as…

  • those with a top 4 finish LTO are 6/16 (37.5%) for 21.05pts (+131.6%)
  • 5/6 yr olds are 3/6 (50%) for 6.84pts (+114%)
  • those priced below 7/2 are 4/5 (80%) for 9.04pts (+180.8%)
  • those beaten by less than a length LTO are 3/4 (75%) for 10.29pts (+257.2%)
  • and Class 6 runners are 2/4 (50%) for 1.57pts (+39.3%%)

Throw in a jockey, Joe Fanning, who is not only in good form himself (6/22 in the last 7 days prior to three rides here at Musselburgh on Thursday night), but also has a 19% strike rate (69/364) on this track since 2010…

…and you’ve got yourself…a 1pt win bet on Cosmic Ray3/1 BOG which was on offer in around a half dozen places at 5.50pm on Thursday, but those able to should take either 7/2 BOG from Paddy Power or 10/3 BOG from Betfair Sports. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.00 Musselburgh

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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