Stat of the Day, 6th May 2017

Friday’s Result :

5.00 Musselburgh : Cosmic Ray @ 3/1 BOG WON at 5/4 Tracked leader, led over 2f out, hard driven, stayed on well to win by a length and a half.

Saturday’s pick goes in the…

2.05 Goodwood…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Dubka7/2 BOG

Why?

A 1m4f Listed contest for fillies on good to firm ground and our pick is a 4 yr old, who has 4 wins from 6 starts to date, including…

  • 4/4 at this trip
  • 4/4 in fields of 4-10 runners
  • 2/3 on good to firm
  • 2/3 going right handed

So, conditions are fine. Now to her trainer, Sir Michael Stoute. The yard is in good nick : 9/30 in the last fortnight and 6 from 17 in the past 7 days with a place strike rate of 71% : all good!

Sir Michael’s runners are also 5/18 (27.8% SR) for 13.4pts (+74.5% ROI) in Listed races here at Gooodwood since 2009 and in all contests here in that same time, he has a 20.7% strike rate (40 winners from 193).

So, we also now know that the yard does well here, but what about the fact that Dubka hasn’t run for 205 days? Well, you’ll be pleased to learn that Sir Michael’s runners returning from a break of 3 to 10 months are 41/181 (22.7% SR) for 59.9pts (+33.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, of which…

  • in non-hcps : 27/119 (22.7%) for 46.9pts (+39.4%)
  • females are 11/62 (+17.7%) for 36.5pts (+58.9%)
  • at Class 1 : 11/35 (31.4%) for 19.1pts (+54.5%)
  • 4 yr olds are 12/28 (42.9%) for 26.1pts (+93.1%)
  • and over this 1m4f trip : 6/15 (40%) for 25.8pts (+171.8%)

And finally (!), Dubka is one of the many offsprin of the renowned Dubawi, whose progeny love running at this trip with 91 winners from 388 (23.5% SR) for 174.7pts (+45% ROI) over 1m4f, from which non-handicappers are 32/125 (25.6%) for 94.7pts (+75.8%) with Class 1 races providing a record of 20/75 (26.7%) for 53.8pts (+71.7%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Dubka7/2 BOG which was on offer from Bet365, Betfred & Totesport at 8.45pm on Friday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.05 Goodwood

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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