Stat of the Day, 9th May 2017

Monday’s Result :

2.50 Stratford : Yorkist @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 Mid-division, headway when not fluent 8th, ridden to chase winner before last, no impression, stayed on same pace

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

4.00 Ayr…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Logi5/1 BOG


A 3 yr old gelding due to be ridden by the in-form Phillip Makin, who despite an indifferent day (we all have them!) on Monday, still has 8 winners from 38 rides (21.1% SR) to his name over the last fortnight, whilst in just the past four days he has 5 winners and 4 placers from 17 for win and place strike rates of 29.4% and 52.9% respectively, so we appear to be in good hands.

Furthermore, his record here at Ayr since 2010 is very good with 51 winners from 321 (15.9% SR) attempts, recording level stakes profits of some 132.1pts (+41.2% ROI). Those P/L and ROI figures are admittedly somewhat skewed by a couple of longer-priced winners, but the strike rate remains impressive. And of relevance today from those 321 rides here in Western Scotland…

    • males are 41/256 (16%) for 114.6pts (+44.8%)
    • Class 4 to 6 runners are 42/229 (18.3%) for 87.7pts (+38.3%)
    • over this 6f trip : 14/92 (15.2%) for 63.6pts (+69.1%)
    • 3 yr olds are 13/61 (21.3%) for 90.5pts (+148.3%)

And if we take a closer look at Phillip’s record at this venue for today’s trainer, David Barron, we find that since 2009, the duo have shared 8 winners from 29 (27.6% SR) for 86.6pts (+298.5% ROI), including…

  • males at 6/22 (27.3%) for 85.1pts (+386.9%)
  • over 6f : 5/17 (29.4%) for 88.4pts (+519.8%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 4/10 (40%) for 8.2pts (+82%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/9 (33.3%) for 73pts (+810.8%)
  • and at Class 5 : 3/7 (42.9%) for 12.3pts (+176.3%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Logi5/1 BOG which was on offer in over a dozen places at 5.55pm on Monday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Ayr

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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