Stat of the Day, 10th May 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

4.00 Ayr : Logi @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 7/2 Held up behind, headway over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on towards finish

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

1.50 Chester…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Requinto Dawn @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A 2 yr old colt, just 40 days into a racing career that saw him win over this trip at Doncaster before narrowly failing to back it up a fortnight later last time out, beaten by three quarters of a length.

We have some excellent writers here at Geegeez and it’s rare that any of the races I choose overlap with those writers and I always prefer to avoid reading any other content before making my picks, so I’m not swayed either way. So, after putting up Requinto Dawn at 6.45pm, I then spotted the Andy Newton’s TV Trends piece (which is right here) and for those who haven’t seen it, you really should as it’s very good indeed.

Anyway, as usual , I digress! My point was that I took a look at Andy’s piece and I found that of the last 15 winners of this particular race…

• 15 had had a recent run (ours ran 25 days ago)
• 14 had a top 3 finish LTO (2nd)
• 12 were favs finishing 1st or 2nd LTO (11/8 fav)
• 11 had already won at this 5f trip (won on debut)
• 4 of the last 11 were also drawn in stall 5.

And to be honest, I felt like Andy had done my job for me! But, as an Irish comedian once said, there’s more!

Further reinforcement comes from the fact that trainer Richard Fahey’s 2 yr olds are 21/102 (20.6% SR) for 60.25pts (+59.1% ROI) here at Chester over the last seasons, which in respect of today’s contest look like this…

• in non-handicaps : 19/72 (26.4%) for 71.6pts (+99.4%)
• making a debut today or 2nd,3rd or 4th LTO : 17/63 927%) for 80.5pts (+127.8%)
• those last seen 11-30 days ago are 14/61 (23%) for 10.4pts (+17%)
• those carrying 9st 2lbs to 9st 5lbs are 12/44 (27.3%) for 40.5pts (+92.1%)
• and in May : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.2pts (+150.9%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Requinto Dawn @ 3/1 BOG which was on offer in over a dozen places at 6.45pm on Tuesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 1.50 Chester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.