Stat of the Day, 11th May 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

1.50 Chester : Requinto Dawn @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 2/1 Took keen hold tracked leaders, ridden and weakened final furlong

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

2.05 Catterick…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Capla Dancer5/2 BOG

Why?

A 2 yr old filly who was a winner on her only previous outing, when scoring at 66/1 over this trip and at this class under today’s jockey, Joey Haynes, three weeks ago at relatively-nearby Ripon.

She flagged up in my preliminary studies on three separate data strands as I’ll (hopefully) briefly explain now.

The first thing I had in mind was quick returning big priced winners, then there the more obvious trainer jockey combo and then finally the sire stats, so let’s look at all three a little more closely.

1. Horses running at the same class and trip as a last time out win at odds of 25/1 to 66/1, 11 to 45 days ago are 29/189 (15.3% SR) for 73pts (+38.6% ROI) profit since the start of 2013.

2. The Karl Burke / Joey Haines trainer/jockey partnership currently has 63 winners from 452 attempts (13.9% SR) generating level stake profits at Betfair SP (the nearest approximation to BOG) of some 360.4pts (79.7% ROI).

Please bear in mind that this P/L figure and those that follow below are somewhat skewed by that big price win by Capla Dancer LTO, but that doesn’t detract from the viability of the data, as from those 452 runners…

  • those running on turf are 47/330 (14.2%) for 225.5pts (+68.3%)
  • females are 30/183 (16.4%) for 386.5pts (+211.2%)
  • those racing over 5 to 6 furlongs are 20/143 (14%) for 242.54pts (+169.6%)
  • at Class 5 : 33/138 (23.9%) for 450.3pts (+326.3%)
  • in non-hcps : 27/132 (20.5%) for 387.1pts (+293.2%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 15/105 (14.3%) for 205.4pts (+195.6%)

3. She’s by Red Jazz, a first season sire, but whose Class 5 turf runners are already 3 from 11 at this early stage of the campaign.

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Capla Dancer5/2 BOG which was on offer in over a half dozen places at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but please take the 11/4 BOG offered by SkyBet if you’re able. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.05 Catterick

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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