Thursday’s Result :
2.05 Catterick : Capla Dancer @ 5/2 BOG non-runner
Friday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Swift Emperor @ 11/2 BOG
A 5 year old gelding who won two starts ago before running a very creditable fourth of 21 in a big field Class 2 handicap last time out almost six weeks ago.
In his defence, he was only beaten by less than two lengths on unsuitably soft ground, a feeling backed up by his record of 2 wins and a place from 5 runs on good to firm ground like he faces today. This return to favoured ground allied to a drop in class should see him in a better light today.
As well as the above, he’s of interest to me, because he’s a system qualifier of one of my many micro-systems I have stored over recent years and it’s I call “1-2/3/4”, because it revolves around horses who won two starts ago (the 1) and were then 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out (ie 2/3/4).
There are of course other parameters to consider, but those last two placings are the base of the study.
The angle I like to go at with these horses is as follows…
…April to September / Flat (turf) / Age 3 to 5 / last run 21-90 days ago / beaten by no more than 5 lengths last time out…
Such horses are 524/2827 (18.5% SR) for 749pts (+26.5% ROI) since the start of the 2010 season, so it’s a considerable data sample and one worth logging down as a part of a portfolio. And with today’s race in mind, those 2827 runners include…
- on good to firm ground : 213/1069 (19.9%) for 325.5pts (+30.5%)
- 5 yr olds are 64/393 (16.3%) for 223.1pts (+56.8%)
- and at Class 3 : 88/382 (23%) for 264.5pts (+69.2%)
…providing…a 1pt win bet on Swift Emperor @ 11/2 BOG which was on offer by both Betfair Sports and Paddy Power at 5.20pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.