Stat of the Day, 17th May 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

4.30 Beverley : Ronnie The Rooster @ 3/1 BOG 7th at 9/4 Close up, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

5.15 Worcester…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Petiville6/1 BOG

Why?

A 5 yr old gelding who has made a promising start to his hurdling career for trainer Richard Hobson, making the frame on both occasions and only beaten by a length and three quarters at Perth last time out.

That run 21 days ago was over the same trip as today, but he now takes a drop back in class, which should help his cause.

Trainer Richard Hobson doesn’t have the best, largest or most prolific string of horses at his disposal, so he does what these smaller yards have to do : find a niche/angle and work with it to a positive outcome. Richard’s strength appears to lie in the shorter distances ie 2 to 2.5 miles, where his runners are 13 from 70 (18.6% SR) for 56.2pts (+80.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2015.

This is, admittedly, not the largest sample size I’ve ever used to pick a horse (nowhere near the smallest either!), but those runners do throw out some interesting facts related to this contest, such as…

  • 4 to 6 yr olds are 11/46 (23.9%) for 63.7pts (+138.4%)
  • those ridden by Alain Cawley are 8/37 (21.6%) for 62.7pts (+169.5%)
  • hurdlers are also 8/37 (21.6%) but for 50.1pts (+135.3%)
  • non-handicappers are 8/36 (22.2%) for 63.1pts (+175.3%)
  • those placed 2nd to 5th last time out are 9/33 (27.3%) for 36.6pts (+110.8%)
  • those last seen 6 to 21 days ago are 6/24 (25%) for 8.1pts (+33.7%)
  • those dropping down a class are 3/11 (27.3%) for 8.32pts (+75.6%)
  • and those beaten by 2 lengths or less LTO are 3/3 (100%) for 16.03pts (+534.3%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Petiville6/1 BOG which was widely available at 6.15pm on Tuesday, but grab the 13/2 BOG from Betfair if you can ( I can’t!). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 5.15 Worcester

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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