Race of the Day – 18 May

Race of the Day – 20:30 Newmarket

We go to the evening card at Newmarket for today’s Race of the Day, and quite a nice looking three year old handicap being run over a mile.

Fleeting Motion, who is trained by Richard Hannon, is the current favourite at around 9/4. She is at the top of the Speed Ratings by quite a way, on a mark of 86, with the next closest being on 75. William Buick takes the ride on her for the first time, and he has been riding plenty of winners recently. Over the past 30 days, he’s had 14 winners (23.33%) and 29 places (48.33%) from 60 runners, for level stakes profits of 31.31 and 35.32 respectively. He also has very useful long term form here at Newmarket.

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The Instant Expert report is available to all users for every race on a Thursday, and here Rashford’s Double shows up well, with three sections of green. The other two sections for him are both grey, never having run at the course before, or in a field of this size. Racing over a mile certainly appears to be his optimum distance, having won three out of the four races. He is six pounds higher than for his last win, and was never in the race last time out. However, that was in a much better race than today’s, and the return to good ground should definitely be in his favour.

From looking at the Pace report we can see that early leaders here over this distance have a very reasonable record, with 18.04% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 96.33.

There doesn’t appear to be bundles of pace within this field, as none of them have so far shown a tendency to be particularly keen to make the running. Therefore, unless one of them is bold and takes the race by the scruff of the neck, it could be quite a muddling slow pace, and turn into a dash for the line, a few furlongs out.

It doesn’t looks like there’s a huge bias in the draw, however it appears slightly more beneficial to be drawn away from the central stalls, when looking at the below. Both low and high drawn horses have a little over 10% win strike rate and almost 32% place strike rate.

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