Stat of the Day, 19th May 2017

Thursday’s Result :

4.15 Perth : Caius Marcius @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/8 Held up in touch, effort to chase leader after 3 out, led just before last, ridden out to win by the best part of three lengths.

Friday’s pick goes in the…

2.10 Newmarket…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Passcode9/2 BOG

Why?

A 3 yr old filly, 3rd on debut over 7f on good to soft, but outpaced late on, stepped up to this 1m trip for her next/last run some 181 days later (31 days ago) and was a winner by a short head.

I’d expect her to improve for having had the pipe opener last month and confidence will be high at home, as trainer Andrew Balding is 4 from 8 this week already and his Class 5 handicappers having only their 2nd run inside a 90 day period are 31/137 (22.6% SR) for 92.6pts (+67.6% ROI) since 2008, from which…

  • those last seen 11-45 days back are 26/105 (24.8%) for 97.4pts (+92.8%)
  • over 6f to 1m2f : 21/95 (22.1%) for 79.3pts (+83.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 19/79 (24.1%) for 82.3pts (+104.2%)
  • females are 10/40 (25%) for 48pts (+120%)
  • those on hcp debut are 10/32 (31.25%) for 50.5pts (+157.8%)
  • and LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.2pts (+101.5%)

That handicap debut stat above is unsurprising to be honest, as his 3 yr old handicap debutants priced shorter than 5/1 are 17 from 50 (34% SR) for 20.1pts (+40.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2014…

…which give us…a 1pt win bet on Passcode9/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 2.10 Newmarket

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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