Thursday’s Result :
4.15 Perth : Caius Marcius @ 4/1 BOG WON at 13/8 Held up in touch, effort to chase leader after 3 out, led just before last, ridden out to win by the best part of three lengths.
Friday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Passcode @ 9/2 BOG
A 3 yr old filly, 3rd on debut over 7f on good to soft, but outpaced late on, stepped up to this 1m trip for her next/last run some 181 days later (31 days ago) and was a winner by a short head.
I’d expect her to improve for having had the pipe opener last month and confidence will be high at home, as trainer Andrew Balding is 4 from 8 this week already and his Class 5 handicappers having only their 2nd run inside a 90 day period are 31/137 (22.6% SR) for 92.6pts (+67.6% ROI) since 2008, from which…
- those last seen 11-45 days back are 26/105 (24.8%) for 97.4pts (+92.8%)
- over 6f to 1m2f : 21/95 (22.1%) for 79.3pts (+83.4%)
- 3 yr olds are 19/79 (24.1%) for 82.3pts (+104.2%)
- females are 10/40 (25%) for 48pts (+120%)
- those on hcp debut are 10/32 (31.25%) for 50.5pts (+157.8%)
- and LTO winners are 6/14 (42.9%) for 14.2pts (+101.5%)
That handicap debut stat above is unsurprising to be honest, as his 3 yr old handicap debutants priced shorter than 5/1 are 17 from 50 (34% SR) for 20.1pts (+40.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2014…
…which give us…a 1pt win bet on Passcode @ 9/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.05pm on Thursday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.