Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2017

Saturday’s Result :

5.00 Newmarket : Star Rock @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 Keen early, tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely.

Monday’s pick goes in the…

3.50 Carlisle…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir of Excitement @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has previously won over 7.5f and was only beaten by a length last time out when headed deep inside the the final furlong of a one mile contest four weeks ago, so I’d expect the drop back to 7f to be to his advantage.

The data supporting my pick today is both quite simple/straightforward and listed below…

Basically, trainer Kevin Ryan’s runners at Carlisle are both successful (25/147 = 17% SR) and profitable to back blindly (134pts = +91.2% ROI) since 2008 and in respect of today’s particular contest, I found a whole host of relevant angles from the 147 runners and here are “just” ten!

• On good to firm/ good ground : 16/101 (15.8%) for 57.9pts (+57.3%)
• at class 5 : 19/98 (19.4%) for 122.5pts (+125%)
• in handicaps : 15/86 (17.4%) for 120.4pts (+140%)
• in May/June  : 9/60 (15%) for 55.2pts (+92.1%)
• on good to form ground : 8/54 (14.8%) for 30.1pts (+55.8%)
• 3 yr olds are 7/42 (16.7%) for 43.2pts (+103%)
• those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO : 9/31 (29%) for 9.5pts (+30.7%)
• those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO : 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.1%)
• those dropping down in trip by 1f : 5/28 (17.9%) for 82.4pts (+294.4%)
• and in 3yo only races : 4/28 (14.3%) for 31.9pts (+113.8%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Heir of Excitement @ 10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and Betvictor at 6.20pm on Sunday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 3.50 Carlisle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.