Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2017

Monday’s Result :

3.50 Carlisle : Heir of Excitement @ 10/3 BOG WON at 9/2 Led, edged right to grab rail after cutaway 2f out, soon baulked, headed narrowly inside final furlong, led again 75 yards out, held on by a neck.

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

8.05 Huntingdon…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Midnight Monty3/1 BOG

Why?

Hmmmm, where should I start? As many of our long-standing members will know, SotD (and the Stat Picks spin-off service) is derived from a combination of the Geegeez toolbox, my own bank of saved microsystems and me actually fancying the horse to win. Sometimes there’s one really strong stat for me to hang my hat on and sometimes you keep seeing a name crop up that it’s hard to ignore. That’s the case here.

Midnight Monty appeals for several reasons, so in the interests of brevity, I’ll attempt a concise overview of some of those reasons, starting with the horse’s recent background, as he has 2 wins from his last 6 outings (127PP1) and that last run/win was by almost 4 lengths 25 days ago here over course and distance under today’s jockey, bringing us to our first port call…

…the Geegeez Shortlist which pointed me in the direction of his form under similar conditions to today ie 2 from 4 over hurdles, 2 from 3 in fields of 8-11 runners (both wins came in 9-runner races like today’s) and he’s 2 from 2 at Class 4.

…then his recent form… 7PP1 and the fact that Class 3 to 6 handicap hurdlers priced at 2/1 to 10/1 who were winners LTO 11 to 30 days ago, having been unplaced in their three previous runs then won again on 156 of 853 (18.3% SR) occasions for level stakes profits of 128.3pts at an ROI of 15% since 2008.

…and as for LTO C&D winners… well, since the start of 2012, handicap hurdlers who won LTO over the same course and distance 11 to 60 days earlier doubled up 129 times from 603 attempts (21.4% SR) for profits of 122.8pts (+20.4% ROI)

…and then the trainer… Tom Lacey is of interest, as his hurdlers are 23/93 (24.7% SR) for 115.3pts (+124% ROI) over the last 18 months, of which…

  • handicap hurdlers are 13/50 (26%) for 45.2pts (+90.4%)
  • LTO winners are 6/20 (30%) for 4.55pts (+22.8%)
  • and LTO handicap winners are 5/16 (31.25%) for 7pts (+43.8%)

…and finally (!) the sire… you’ve probably guessed from his name that he’s from my favourite sire, Midnight Legend. Don’t worry, I’m not going to bang on about the myriad of profitable Midnight Legend angles, but I will just point you towards the fact that since 2008, his Class 3/4 handicap hurdlers tackling 2m5f to 3m2f are 55/308 (17.9% SR) for 331pts (+107.5% ROI) profit, from which…

  • those racing on good ground are 21/116 (18.1%) for 119.2pts (+102.8%)
  • whilst here at Huntingdon, they’re 3 from 7 (42.9%) for 31.3pts (+447%)

…giving usa 1pt win bet on Midnight Monty3/1 BOG which was available with both Coral and Ladbrokes at 7.20pm on Monday with plenty of acceptable 11/4 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.05 Huntingdon

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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