Race of the Day – 16:30 Yarmouth
We go to Yarmouth for Race of the Day, and a very open looking seven furlong handicap.
Realize is running for David Simcock for the first time today, as can be seen by the blue ‘TC’ next to the horses name, and Simcock has a reasonably good record with horses he has inherited from other stables. Jockey Jamie Spencer appears to like Yarmouth, as over the past year he’s had 13 winners (20.31%) and 31 places (48.44%) from 64 runners, for level stakes profits of 5.21 and 8.56 respectively.
Song Of Shadows is the highest rated in the field, but is making his handicap debut here today. At the back end of last year he won a maiden on the all weather at Wolverhampton in very taking style, but it is very difficult to know how good he is based on that effort, and he definitely has a lofty enough initial rating.
With the Instant Expert report set to the ‘Place’ setting, Lastmanlastround comes out well, with three sections of green and one of amber. He was a winner last time out at Brighton, for which a two pound rise doesn’t appear excessive, especially considering Noel Garbutt takes the ride today and is claiming three pounds.
Realize has two sections of green and two of amber, with seven furlongs being his optimum distance. The ground here at Yarmouth appeared a little on the fast side last time out, and that was his first run back on turf for a while. His turf mark is over 20 pounds lower than his all weather rating, therefore if the softer ground today is more to his liking, then he could be a big player.
From looking at the Pace report, we can see that early leaders here over this distance have easily the best record, with 20.73% of them going on to win, for a level stakes profit of 32.84. Prominent runners are do well, and they have produced a 12.46% strike rate for a level stakes profit of 82.02.
Vroom and Lastmanlastround have comfortably the highest pace scores, and look the most likely to be the early leaders, with Realize just in behind.
The Trainer Statistics report is available to all users on a Wednesday, and here it shows what an excellent record David Simcock has at Yarmouth. Over the last year he’s had 10 winners (34.48%) and 13 places (44.83%) from 29 runners, for level stakes profits of 38.50 and 41.73 respectively. As mentioned earlier, he runs Realize here today, and I think he has a very good chance of taking this, at around 4/1.
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