Stat of the Day, 29th May 2017

Saturday’s Result :

8.00 Ffos Las : Heist @ 9/2 BOG = 3/15/1 after 30p R4 WON at 11/4 With leader, left in lead 7th, joined approaching 2 out, ridden between last 2, stayed on well under pressure on flat to win by 2 lengths.

Monday’s pick goes in the…

4.50 Chelmsford…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


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Dark Side Dream3/1 BOG


This is a Class 5, 7-runner handicap over 7f for horses aged 4 and over and I’ve gone with a 5 yr old gelding who was a winner two starts ago at Wolverhampton, before narrowly going down by head when starting to stay on over the same trip in a Class 4 contest last time out 21 days ago.

He now steps up in trip to 7f, which should help, based on the way he has been finishing of late and he also takes a drop in class to run here for trainer Chris Dwyer, whose horses are 3 from 7 in the past fortnight and 2 from 6 over the last seven days.

Chris’ A/W handicap class droppers are 22/117 (18.8% SR) for 25.4pts (+21.7% ROI) since the start of 2013, including the following of note/relevance today…

  • those priced at 7/4 to 14/1 are 21/81 (25.9%) for 59.5pts (+73.4%)
  • those racing over 5f to 7f : 16/68 (23.5%) for 49.2pts (+72.3%)
  • those last seen 21 to 60 days back are 12/53 (22.6%) for 34.2pts (+64.6%)
  • here at Chelmsford : 6/29 (20.7%) for 14.6pts (+50.4%)
  • and 5 yr olds are 3 from 9 (33.3%) for 2.14pts (+23.8%)

In addition to the above, Chris Dwyer’s runners tend to go very well on this track here at Chelmsford with 26 winners from 145 (17.9% SR) generating level stakes profits of some 125.4pts at an ROI of 86.5%, with his handicappers faring particularly well with a record of 24/127 (18.9%) for 132.5pts (+104.3%).

And of those 127 handicappers here at Chelmsford…

  • those last seen 11 to 45 days ago are 21/97 (21.7%) for 149.3pts (+153.9%)
  • males are 16/85 (18.8%) for 124.4pts (+146.3%)
  • and those racing over 6f to 1m are 16/76 (21.1%) for 155.2pts (+204.2%)

AND…from the above…male handicappers racing over 7f/1m 11-45 dslr = 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 150.7pts (+579.7% ROI)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Dark Side Dream3/1 BOG which was available with BetVictor & Bet365 at 10.05pm on Sunday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.50 Chelmsford

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!


Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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