Stat of the Day, 1st June 2017

Wednesday’s Result :

8.10 Ayr : Trinity Star @ 10/3 BOG 5th at 5/4 Dwelt towards rear, switched right 2f out, ridden and headway entering final furlong, no impression towards finish.

Thursday’s pick goes in the…

6.50 Newcastle…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Fredricka @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

A very consistent 6 yr old Mare who has finished 232213 in her last four outings on the A/W, having shown improvement under the four runs she had whilst at Jose Santos’ yard.

She now makes a debut for trainer Chris Dwyer, whose runners are going really well of late with 4 winners and 2 placers from 9 in the last fortnight and 3 winners / 2 placers from 8 in the last week.

More long-term, the Dwyer A/W handicappers are 82/489 (16.8% SR) for 194.5pts (+39.8% ROI) since 2013, including of note/relevance today…

  • over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs : 69/381 (18.1%) for 235.8pts (+61.9%)
  • females are 31/170 (18.2%) for 63.7pts (+37.5%)
  • on Tapeta : 16/106 (15.1%) for 33.3pts (+31.4%)
  • in female only races : 13/43 (30.2%) for 28.24pts (+65.7%)
  • females over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on Tapeta : 6/21 (28.6%) for 46.7pts (+222.2%)
  • and females over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs on Tapeta in female only races : 3/5 (60%) for 29.26pts (+585.3%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Fredricka7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Wednesday, but those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by Ladbrokes would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 6.50 Newcastle

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

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