Race of the Day – 16:45 Brighton
This is a six furlong handicap on good going at Brighton for those rated 0-60.
Deeds Not Words is the short priced favourite, currently at around 13/8. He is chasing a hat trick here today after wins on the all weather courses at Kempton and Wolverhampton. He has been raised a further six pounds for his latest win, and will need to produce the same level of form now back on the turf. His jockey, David Probert, has a very good long term record here at Brighton. Over the last five years he’s had 19 winners (18.27%) and 39 places (37.50%) from 104 runners, for level stakes profits 38.93 and 29.54 respectively.
The Instant Expert report when on the ‘Place’ setting, shows that Deeds Not Words is well suited by today’s conditions, as he has one section of green and three of amber. As mentioned earlier, he was raised six pounds for his latest win, but it is very interesting to note that he is still six pounds lower than for his last victory on the turf. Therefore, if he continues his good run of form, he will be very difficult to get past.
From looking at the Pace report we can see that early leaders here over this distance have a very good record, with 19.79% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 15.88.
There don’t appear to be any real front runners in this race, however Frank Cool has the highest pace score based on the last four runs of each horse. Deeds Not Words is another who is usually towards the front, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see David Probert take the lead early on, and try to snatch a race in which a lot of the field will be held up.
The Trainer Statistics report shows what an excellent record Tony Carroll has here at Brighton. Over the past year he’s had 11 winners (18.64%) and 28 places (47.46%) from 59 runners, for level stakes profits of 22.25 and 31.91. This is one of his most profitable courses, and he has last time out winner Frank Cool here today, who is currently around a 6/1 shot.
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