Stat of the Day, 14th June 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

3.45 Yarmouth : Excel Again @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 5/1 Raced wide, keen, tracked leader, ridden and every chance over 1f out, soon chased winner, one pace and lost 2 places inside final furlong.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

8.10 Kempton…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Yaraki @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Just one run to date so far for this 3 yr old filly, but she was a winner on debut in a 6f maiden at Lingfield 32 days ago under today’s jockey Pat Cosgrave and now steps up in trip by 1f for her handicap debut.

She’s trained by William Haggas, who is consistently finding winners and a quick look at his stats show he constantly averages a 25% to 30% strike rate, whilst here at Kempton in handicaps since the start of 2013, his runners are 11 from 54 (20.4% SR) for 27.2pts (+50.3% ROI), and of these…

  • those last seen 16-60 days earlier are 9/34 (26.5%) for 36.4pts (106.9%)
  • at Class 4/5 : 7/34 (20.6%) for 16.33pts (48%)
  • 3 yr olds are 5/26 (19.2%) for 15.2pts (58.4%)
  • LTO winners are 4/16 (25%) for 7.69pts (48.1%)
  • those ridden by Pat Cosgrave are 3/11 (27.3%) for 2.65pts (24.1%)

In addition to the above, William Haggas’ 3 yr olds making their handicap debut at Class 3/4 are 41/125 (32.8% SR) for 50.1pts (+40% ROI) since the start of 2010, including…

  • LTO winners : 37/106 (34.9%) for 52.4pts (49.5%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 15/2 : 35/102 (34.3%) for 62pts (60.8%)
  • over 6f to 1m 2.5f : 38/101 (37.6%) for 62.4pts (61.8%)
  • up in trip by 0.5f to 1.5f : 20/56 (35.7%) for 37.5pts (+66.9%)
  • females are 22/53 (41.5%) for 36.4pts (68.7%)
  • and those making their second start are 7/15 (46.7%) for 16.23pts (108.2%)

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Yaraki7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.30pm on Tuesday, but do take the 4/1 BOG from Corals if you can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 8.10 Kempton

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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