Stat of the Day, 17th June 2017
Friday’s Result :
7.40 Goodwood : Road To Dubai @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 13/8 Led after 1f, ridden and hung sharply left inside final furlong, soon headed, rallied towards finish, beaten by a neck.
Saturday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Realize @ 3/1 BOG
Why?
This 7 yr old gelding had finished 7764 in consecutive outings before a switch to David Simcock’s yard resulted in a win last time out, 24 days ago. This return to form after a cold spell (something I could also do with!) caught my eye, as it made him a qualifier for one of my stored microsystems. It’s one that looks far more complicated written down than it actually but here are the rules…
…2009-17 / UK Flat hcps / Class 3-5 / 6 to 12 furlongs / won LTO 4-30 days ago after a string of 3 or more successive unplaced efforts…
Such horses are more common than you’d think and the ones I back are those in the 9/4 to 16/1 odds range and whose mark (OR) has only been raised by 0 to 4lbs for that win. This filtering gives 102 winners from 709 (14.4% SR) qualifiers over the last 8.5 seasons and a £20 stake on each has generated level stakes profits of £3566 at an ROI of 25.1%.
Now, not everyone wants 80-85 bets over Flat season from just one angle, so you could trim the number of selections by applying the following filters which are all applicable today…
- 3-8 yr olds are 99/657 (15.1%) for 200.2pts (+30.5%)
- those who last ran 11-30 days ago are 85/588 (14.5%) for 172pts (+29.3%)
- males are 81/533 (15.2%) for 176.8pts (+33.2%)
- in the April-June period : 53/303 (17.5%) for 148.5pts (+49%)
and if you wanted a condensed version of the original micro, but with just around 30 bets per season : 3-8 yr old males who last ran 11-30 days ago are 45/260 (17.3% SR) for 119.7pts (+46% ROI) in the April-July period.
It’s also worth mentioning that David Simcock’s handicappers who won LTO have gone on to win again on 66 of 239 occasions (27.6% SR) for profits of 65.6pts (+27.4% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which…
- those priced at Evens to 8/1 are 58/188 (30.9%) for 79.2pts (+42.1%)
- those last seen 6-45 days earlier are 53/169 (31.4%) for 71.1pts (+42.1%)
And a slightly broader approach with those priced at Evens to 8/1 last seen 6-75 days earlier = 51/147 (34.7% SR) for 77.8pts (+52.9% ROI)
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Realize @ 3/1 BOG offered by Betfair , Paddy Power and BetVictor at 6.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
…click here for the betting on the 3.35 Bath
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!
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