Stat of the Day, 21st June 2017

Tuesday’s Result :

4.05 Stratford : Our Three Sons @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 Made most and set good pace, headed approaching last, kept on same pace run-in, no chance with winner.

Wednesday’s pick goes in the…

4.20 Royal Ascot…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Highland Reel @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

It might look an obvious pick to go with the favourite in the race with least runners at the meeting, but I assure there was a little more than that behind my thoughts, as I rarely “take” SotD to the big Festivals, although my record when I do is decent enough : it’s just not my bread and butter!

So, let’s look at the horse himself, shall we? A 5 yr old with 5 wins from 11 so far and this 45.5% strike rate includes the following that are at play today…

  • 5 from 6 when shorter than 6/1, 4 from 6 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4 from 6 after a break of just 2 to 5 weeks, 5 from 5 as favourite
  • 3 from 5 on good to firm ground, 2 from 3 under Ryan Moore and a win plus a runner-up spot from two runs at Ascot.

The Ryan Moore for AP O’Brien in Class 1 racing combination is a successful one with 57 wins from 204 (27.9% SR) since the start of 2011 and despite it being very well publicised, it’s still very profitable at +49pts, a return of some 24%. What might not be as well known, is that of those 204 runners…

  • Irish horses are 45/149 (30.2%) for 54.8pts (+36.8%)
  • In the months of May/June : 39/113 (34.5%) for 60pts (+53.1%)
  • LTO winners are 33/92 (35.9%) for 60pts (+65.3%)
  • Those last seen 11 to 25 days ago are 25/89 (28.1%) for 68.1pts (+76.5%)
  • At Group 1 : 21/79 (26.6%) for 24.7pts (+31.3%)
  • And here at Royal Ascot : 12/51 (23.5%) for 10.7pts (+21%)

On top of the above, Male Gr 1 runners who ran at Class 1 LTO, 4 to 30 days ago and have at least one previous Class 1 win are 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 28.3pts (+44.9% ROI) since 2008, of which…

  • those trained by AP O’Brien are 6/11 (54.6%) for 9.23pts (+83.9%)
  • at Ascot : 3/8 (37.5%) for 32.8pts (+410%)
  • and at Royal Ascot : 2/3 (66.6%) for 35.4pts (+1179.2%)

…whilst Gr 1 runners with a career strike rate of 45% and higher including at least two Class 1 wins and who have the top OR in their race are 83/155 (53.6% SR) for 36.7pts (+23.7% ROI) since 2010 and these include…

  • at Ascot : 15/25 (60%) for 8.7pts (+34.8%)
  • trained by AP O’Brien : 12/19 (63.2%) for 3.43pts (+18.1%)
  • at Royal Ascot : 8/10 (80%) for 8.98pts (+89.8%)
  • 5 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.63pts (+37.6%)
  • and Ryan Moore is 5/7 (71.4%) for 2.43pts (+34.7%), all on hiorses trained by AP O’Brien!

…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Highland Reel11/4 BOG which was widely available at 7.10pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.20 Royal Ascot

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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