Tuesday’s Result :
4.05 Stratford : Our Three Sons @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 Made most and set good pace, headed approaching last, kept on same pace run-in, no chance with winner.
Wednesday’s pick goes in the…
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Highland Reel @ 11/4 BOG
It might look an obvious pick to go with the favourite in the race with least runners at the meeting, but I assure there was a little more than that behind my thoughts, as I rarely “take” SotD to the big Festivals, although my record when I do is decent enough : it’s just not my bread and butter!
So, let’s look at the horse himself, shall we? A 5 yr old with 5 wins from 11 so far and this 45.5% strike rate includes the following that are at play today…
- 5 from 6 when shorter than 6/1, 4 from 6 in fields of 8-11 runners
- 4 from 6 after a break of just 2 to 5 weeks, 5 from 5 as favourite
- 3 from 5 on good to firm ground, 2 from 3 under Ryan Moore and a win plus a runner-up spot from two runs at Ascot.
The Ryan Moore for AP O’Brien in Class 1 racing combination is a successful one with 57 wins from 204 (27.9% SR) since the start of 2011 and despite it being very well publicised, it’s still very profitable at +49pts, a return of some 24%. What might not be as well known, is that of those 204 runners…
- Irish horses are 45/149 (30.2%) for 54.8pts (+36.8%)
- In the months of May/June : 39/113 (34.5%) for 60pts (+53.1%)
- LTO winners are 33/92 (35.9%) for 60pts (+65.3%)
- Those last seen 11 to 25 days ago are 25/89 (28.1%) for 68.1pts (+76.5%)
- At Group 1 : 21/79 (26.6%) for 24.7pts (+31.3%)
- And here at Royal Ascot : 12/51 (23.5%) for 10.7pts (+21%)
On top of the above, Male Gr 1 runners who ran at Class 1 LTO, 4 to 30 days ago and have at least one previous Class 1 win are 18/63 (28.6% SR) for 28.3pts (+44.9% ROI) since 2008, of which…
- those trained by AP O’Brien are 6/11 (54.6%) for 9.23pts (+83.9%)
- at Ascot : 3/8 (37.5%) for 32.8pts (+410%)
- and at Royal Ascot : 2/3 (66.6%) for 35.4pts (+1179.2%)
…whilst Gr 1 runners with a career strike rate of 45% and higher including at least two Class 1 wins and who have the top OR in their race are 83/155 (53.6% SR) for 36.7pts (+23.7% ROI) since 2010 and these include…
- at Ascot : 15/25 (60%) for 8.7pts (+34.8%)
- trained by AP O’Brien : 12/19 (63.2%) for 3.43pts (+18.1%)
- at Royal Ascot : 8/10 (80%) for 8.98pts (+89.8%)
- 5 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1%) for 2.63pts (+37.6%)
- and Ryan Moore is 5/7 (71.4%) for 2.43pts (+34.7%), all on hiorses trained by AP O’Brien!
…giving us…a 1pt win bet on Highland Reel @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 7.10pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…
Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!