Stat of the Day, 27th June 2017

Monday’s Result :

5.45 Wolverhampton : Rattle On @ 4/1 BOG 8th at 5/2 Tracked leaders, went 2nd over 3f out, ridden and no impression with winner 2f out, weakened inside final furlong.

Tuesday’s pick goes in the…

4.00 Beverley…

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I’ll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day’s race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can’t give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

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Who?

Katebird @ 11/2 BOG

Why?

I’ll start with a statement of the obvious, this is NOT the best field of horses assembled for a race, even at this lowly Class 6 level! In fact the 10 runners have already raced 60 times between them, clocking up just two wins! The good news, however, is that our pick is 2 from 15, so she has at least won.

She’s trained by Mark Johnston, who does well here at Beverley with 109 winners from 452 runners (24.1% SR) here since 2009, generating 95.3pts profit at an ROI of 21.1%, which on its own is an excellent reason to back his runners here, but closer examination of those 452 runners applied to today’s race conditions show that they are…

  • 99/397 (24.9%) for 133.5pts (+33.6%) at odds of 11/10 to 12/1
  • 99/364 (27.2%) for 125.6pts (+34.5%) from those with 1-16 previous runs
  • 74/302 (24.5%) for 97.6pts (+32.3%) in handicaps
  • 75/287 (26.1%) for 102.3pts (+35.6%) after a break of just 4-25 days
  • 64/255 (25.1%) for 90.7pts (+35.6%) from 3 yr olds
  • 45/202 (22.3%) for 30.4pts (+15.1%) ridden by Joe Fanning
  • 54/178 (30.3%) for 104.2pts (+58.5%) over trips of 1m2f and beyond
  • 41/164 (25%) for 85pts (+51.8%) in 3 yr old races
  • and 19/55 (34.6%) for 70.5pts (+128.2%) at Class 6

And as Katebird is highly likely to go off as favourite, it’s worth noting that jockey Joe Fanning is 152 from 379 (40.1% SR) for 27.93pts (+7.37% ROI) on Turf favourites since the start of the 2013 season, including…

  • over 7.5f to 1m4f : 79/164 (48.2%) for 42.7pts (+26%)
  • at Beverley : 19/44 (43.2%) for 5.88pts (+13.4%)
  • at Class 6 : 17/43 (39.5%) for 10.03pts (+23.3%)

…pointing to…a 1pt win bet on Katebird11/2 BOG which was offered by both Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.20pm on Monday with plenty of more than acceptable 5/1 BOG elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply…

…click here for the betting on the 4.00 Beverley…

Don’t forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today’s racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that’s unclear, please ask!

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