Race of the Day – 3 Jul

Race of the Day – 19:45 Hamilton

A mile and a half handicap at Hamilton on good to soft ground is what we have for Race of the Day, and it’s a good looking race.

The bottom weight and one of the outsiders at 12/1, Mister Belvedere, is actually at the top of the Speed Ratings, with a score of 82. Both his trainer and jockey have been in excellent current form, with trainer Michael Dods over the past 30 days having 16 winners (23.53%) and 28 places (41.18%) from 68 runners, for level stakes profits of 35.29 and 34.06 respectively.

The seven year old Al Destoor is at the top of the weights and he is the current 5/2 favourite. He was a very easy winner last time out in soft conditions at Chester, and steps up a further two furlongs here today. He has taken a nine pound hike in the weights for that win, but looks in great shape and could be tough to stop. Trainer Jennie Candlish has a super record with last time out winners, as she’s had 16 winners (27.12%) and 37 places (62.71%) from 59 runners, for level stakes profits of 23.27 and 37.82 respectively.

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When looking at the Instant Expert report on the ‘Place’ setting, Al Destoor has three sections of green and one of amber. Unlike a lot of the field he is very comfortable on the good to soft going, and this could prove quite an important factor.

Gaelic Tiger has three sections of green, showing he is reasonably well suited by today’s conditions. Like Al Destoor, he is by Teofilo so this is a nice looking distance for him, and he’s just the three pounds higher than for his last victory.

The Pace report shows that early leaders here over this distance have the best record, with 13.85% of them going on to win the race, for a level stakes profit of 3.83.  Compared to a lot of courses, being an early leader here isn’t a huge advantage, as can be seen by the other three running styles all having amber pace ‘blobs’.

Be Perfect and Miss Belvedere have the highest pace scores and look the most likely to be leading through the early stages of this race. It will be interesting to see how quickly they go through the first couple of furlongs as a few of the runners are stepping up in distance, so there will definitely be some stamina doubts.

O’Meara and Tudhope have been banging out the winners lately, and they also have a very good record here at Hamilton. Over the past year they’ve had four winners and and six places from ten runners, for level stakes profits of 4.88 and 3.95 respectively. They team up with Gaelic Tiger here today, and if the favourite struggles to cope with the extra weight he has to lump around, then he could be the one to take advantage.

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